Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:44:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EF
0xefde…6505
sports · 784 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$15,165 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$16,627 · open +$656
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$35,938
Realized+$16,627
Unrealized+$656
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses287 / 279
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$1,206
Open positions233
Markets (closed)566 / 784
History coverage15d
Avg bet$180
Trades / day190.7
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 233 History 566 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$203
7 days−$13,911
14 days+$16,650
30 days+$16,627
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? No 93¢ 94¢ $2,967 $2,992 +$26 (+1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 75¢ 80¢ $2,625 $2,808 +$183 (+7%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 89¢ $2,051 $2,042 −$9 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 83¢ $1,393 $1,384 −$10 (-1%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Qatar 41¢ 44¢ $1,278 $1,345 +$67 (+5%)
Spread: United States (-2.5) Paraguay 91¢ 92¢ $1,189 $1,203 +$15 (+1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $931 $937 +$6 (+1%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 61¢ 62¢ $905 $912 +$7 (+1%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $871 $873 +$2 (+0%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 53¢ 55¢ $833 $857 +$24 (+3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 90¢ $824 $828 +$4 (+1%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Over 53¢ 54¢ $803 $818 +$15 (+2%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 64¢ 81¢ $577 $724 +$147 (+25%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 50¢ 52¢ $701 $723 +$22 (+3%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $697 $702 +$6 (+1%)
Will Panama win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $642 $639 −$3 (-0%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 58¢ $538 $551 +$13 (+2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? No 80¢ 80¢ $510 $513 +$3 (+1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Under 49¢ 48¢ $473 $465 −$7 (-2%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Under 42¢ 44¢ $408 $419 +$11 (+3%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Over 92¢ 92¢ $408 $410 +$2 (+1%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Under 78¢ 80¢ $356 $362 +$6 (+2%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) Paraguay 77¢ 78¢ $351 $356 +$4 (+1%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Under 80¢ 81¢ $345 $353 +$8 (+2%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Under 73¢ 72¢ $328 $325 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $150 −$3 -2%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $177 −$2 -1%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5) Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 12 $149 −$149 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $229 −$229 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $226 −$226 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $763 −$763 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $542 −$542 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $189 −$189 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $176 −$163 -93%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $38 −$12 -31%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +44%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $668 +$173 +26%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 +$1 +97%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $7 +$5 +70%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) Jun 12 $33 +$11 +33%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $25 +$17 +67%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $88 +$26 +29%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $44 +$46 +105%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $34 +$3 +10%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $1,603 +$1,174 +73%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $411 +$92 +22%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 11 $396 +$44 +11%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5) Jun 11 $37 +$13 +35%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $1 +$1 +83%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $1 +$1 +93%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $236 −$4 -2%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 11 $32 −$32 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $63 −$63 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $72 −$72 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $169 −$169 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 11 $398 −$398 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $202 +$151 +75%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-4.5) Jun 11 $29 +$5 +16%
Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5) Jun 11 $824 +$176 +21%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs paiN Gaming (+1.5) Jun 11 $1,269 +$1,231 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 64% +$5,259
other 36% +$11,725
crypto 0% +$50
world 0% +$248
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Paraguay 92¢ $148 12m
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Paraguay 92¢ $71 12m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $16 30m
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Cabo Verde 81¢ $9 41m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 42m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $29 44m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $14 45m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 46m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 50m
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 31¢ $2 1h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 31¢ $1 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $14 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $0 2h
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY New York Mets 64¢ $16 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $0 2h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 80¢ $21 2h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 47¢ $40 2h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 47¢ $3 2h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 73¢ $124 2h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 48¢ $60 2h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 18¢ $22 2h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 2h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 6¢ $1 2h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $23 3h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 26¢ $1 3h
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 41¢ $22 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 19¢ $75 4h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 19¢ $135 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 53¢ $335 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 335 -42.6% -48.1% 30% 27% -43.4%
≤30d 566 +6.7% -3.4% 51% 47% +6.1%
≤90d 566 +6.7% -3.4% 51% 47% +6.1%
all 566 +6.7% -3.4% 51% 47% +6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover190.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.4% 47% +6.1%
10% ← realistic here -12.7% 40% -4.0%
15% -21.1% 35% -13.3%
20% -28.8% 29% -21.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35,937.59 · official $35,937.93 (match) · 3500 history records