Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:39:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EF 0xefde…783d world 137 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d
RISKYcopy with care world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$18,102 (+7%) realized +$8,631 · open +$1,095
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate66%71W / 36L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$1,784per market
Trades / day110.4pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$12,019now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,197
7 days+$5,144
14 days+$6,239
30 days+$8,631
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% +$9,035
crypto 14% +$1,515
other 7% +$13
tech 2% −$967
sports 0% −$287
politics 0% +$552
finance 0% −$135
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+40.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +60.1% +44.9% 67% 33% -3.5%
≤30d 107 +55.3% +40.5% 66% 30% -5.4%
≤90d 107 +55.3% +40.5% 66% 30% -5.4%
all 107 +55.3% +40.5% 66% 30% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover110.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +40.5% 30% -5.4%
10% +27.1% 18% -14.4%
15% ← realistic here +14.8% 17% -22.7%
20% +3.5% 13% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +55% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$1,342) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +40% → late +71% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
10.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$208 vs −$170 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.41 per $1 lost it wins $2.41
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$12,019
Realized+$8,631
Unrealized+$1,095
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses71 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions32
Markets (closed)107 / 137
History coverage30d
Avg bet$1,784
Trades / day110.4
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? No 55¢ 94¢ $825 $1,407 +$582 (+71%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 58¢ 80¢ $1,000 $1,368 +$368 (+37%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? No 59¢ 94¢ $751 $1,190 +$439 (+58%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 41¢ 45¢ $1,035 $1,114 +$79 (+8%)
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Yes 69¢ 46¢ $1,485 $978 −$507 (-34%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Yes 80¢ 94¢ $800 $945 +$145 (+18%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? No 76¢ 100¢ $605 $797 +$192 (+32%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 39¢ 48¢ $473 $582 +$109 (+23%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 35¢ 80¢ $175 $403 +$228 (+130%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 89¢ 90¢ $370 $376 +$6 (+2%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? No 69¢ 93¢ $243 $324 +$81 (+34%)
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Yes 52¢ 32¢ $506 $316 −$190 (-37%)
Will Kenan Yıldız score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $240 $240 +$0 (+0%)
Will Lionel Messi score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 43¢ 50¢ $207 $239 +$32 (+16%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $207 $238 +$31 (+15%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 16¢ $150 $236 +$86 (+57%)
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? No 45¢ 49¢ $209 $230 +$22 (+10%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 94¢ 97¢ $189 $194 +$6 (+3%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Yes 74¢ 16¢ $724 $161 −$563 (-78%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $152 $145 −$7 (-5%)
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $107 $117 +$10 (+9%)
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? No 51¢ 24¢ $163 $75 −$88 (-54%)
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? No 68¢ 78¢ $52 $60 +$8 (+15%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 41¢ $41 $58 +$17 (+41%)
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 55¢ 66¢ $44 $53 +$9 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $6,064 −$562 -9%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $182 +$18 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $4,930 +$772 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1,855 +$45 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $20,665 +$2,870 +14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $1,223 −$29 -2%
Will Kai Havertz score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $375 +$55 +15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $602 +$27 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $7,840 +$550 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $897 +$13 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $900 +$10 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $526 +$106 +20%
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31? Jun 14 $1 +$148 +16432%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 14 $250 −$79 -32%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $0 +$1 +317%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $812 +$37 +4%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 13 $101 +$213 +210%
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $31 +$4 +11%
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $513 +$113 +22%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $1,342 −$213 -16%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $2,459 −$663 -27%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $793 +$64 +8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $350 +$50 +14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 12 $1,074 +$56 +5%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 14, 2026? Jun 12 $1,189 −$67 -6%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 12 $2,496 +$425 +17%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1,328 −$24 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 12 $166 −$23 -14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 12 $400 −$56 -14%
Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026? Jun 11 $115 −$4 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $3,328 +$131 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $1,917 +$232 +12%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 11 $989 −$182 -18%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 11 $375 +$1,490 +397%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 11 $4,394 +$140 +3%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +64%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 10 $318 −$318 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? Jun 10 $680 +$10 +2%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $240 +$2 +1%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $74 −$7 -9%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $156 +$3 +2%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $93 +$13 +14%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $2,109 +$86 +4%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $253 −$220 -87%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $189 +$8 +4%
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? Jun 06 $36 +$375 +1044%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5? Jun 04 $425 −$241 -57%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 03 $790 +$120 +15%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 02 $658 +$38 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 2¢ $2 4m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 2¢ $4 4m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 2¢ $4 4m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 2¢ $4 4m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 2¢ $4 4m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 2¢ $4 4m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 2¢ $4 4m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 2¢ $4 4m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 2¢ $4 4m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 2¢ $4 4m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 2¢ $4 4m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 2¢ $1 4m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 2¢ $20 4m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $1,035 6m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 15¢ $4 9m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 15¢ $1 9m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 15¢ $1 10m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 15¢ $14 11m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 15¢ $1 11m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 15¢ $1 11m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 15¢ $1 11m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 15¢ $23 11m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 15¢ $5 11m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 86¢ $827 11m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 86¢ $26 11m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 88¢ $7 12m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 82¢ $820 13m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 18¢ $317 16m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 18¢ $4 16m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 18¢ $1 16m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,018.53 · official $12,018.57 (match) · 3500 history records