Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:48:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EF
0xefe0…41f3
crypto · 63 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
+$96 +15%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$89 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized+$89
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses34 / 28
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage33d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 1 History 62 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Over 30¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5) New York Yankees 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers San Francisco Giants 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 78°F or higher on May 13? No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 66°F or higher on May 13? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
AA Argentinos Juniors vs. CA Huracán: O/U 1.5 Over 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Karen Khachanov Karen Khachanov 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles New York Yankees 34¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers San Francisco Giants 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians Los Angeles Angels 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
AA Argentinos Juniors vs. CA Huracán: Both Teams to Score Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 15 $7 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 15 $32 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 15 $38 +$11 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 15 $2 +$2 +114%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 14 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 14 $17 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 14 $1 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 14 $2 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 14 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 14 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 14 $17 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 14 $17 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 14 $31 −$6 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 14 $19 +$9 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 14 $67 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 14 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 14 $17 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 14 $19 +$4 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 14 $36 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 14 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 14 $6 +$4 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 14 $19 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 14 $19 +$6 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 14 $67 +$4 +6%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 14 $17 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 14 $22 +$64 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 14 $6 −$6 -96%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 May 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 14 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 14 $2 $0 +1%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) May 14 $1 +$2 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 14 $4 +$3 +78%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 May 14 $6 +$4 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 13 $2 $0 +1%
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5 May 13 $2 −$2 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 13 $2 $0 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 93% +$91
sports 6% +$2
other 0% −$2
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $30 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $30 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 30d
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY San Francisco Giants 17¢ $1 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $12 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 30d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $8 30d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 4 -73.2% -75.8% 25% 0% -38.3%
≤90d 62 -16.4% -24.4% 55% 37% +3.2%
all 62 -16.4% -24.4% 55% 37% +3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 37% +3.2%
10% -31.6% 24% -6.7%
15% -38.2% 15% -15.7%
20% -44.3% 11% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.98 · official $0.98 (match) · 144 history records