Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:40:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xefe1…863c other 152 markets active 2h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$52 (-0%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%16W / 135L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$18
sports 27% −$15
politics 17% −$7
crypto 9% +$1
world 7% −$3
culture 6% −$3
economics 5% −$6
tech 2% −$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -1.1% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 3 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.1%
all 151 -0.2% -9.7% 11% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses16 / 135
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)151 / 152
History coverage166d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 92¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $39 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $213 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 25 $343 +$2 +0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 24 $176 $0 +0%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 24 $172 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 23 $622 $0 -0%
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $166 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Mar 22 $355 −$1 -0%
Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 22 $174 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 21 $354 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 21 $533 −$4 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 20 $172 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 20 $734 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 20 $368 +$1 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 20 $368 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 19 $168 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Mar 19 $173 $0 +0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 19 $168 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 19 $177 $0 +0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 18 $174 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? Mar 18 $166 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 17 $179 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 17 $170 −$1 -0%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 16 $174 −$3 -2%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 16 $180 −$4 -2%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $567 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $456 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 15 $176 $0 +0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 15 $183 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 15 $573 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 14 $210 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 13 $176 −$1 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 13 $357 −$1 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 12 $188 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 12 $185 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 11 $392 −$2 -1%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 11 $192 −$3 -2%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 11 $445 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 10 $170 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 09 $197 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 09 $299 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 08 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 08 $198 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Mar 07 $194 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 05 $802 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 05 $361 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Mar 05 $191 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 05 $190 −$1 -0%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 05 $198 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $40 1h
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 93¢ $60 13d
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $61 13d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $39 26d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $39 26d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $59 39d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $59 39d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? SELL No 98¢ $173 90d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? BUY No 97¢ $171 91d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $176 91d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $73 91d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $13 91d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $33 91d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $56 91d
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 93¢ $171 91d
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 93¢ $172 91d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $167 92d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $167 92d
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL No 95¢ $166 92d
Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 95¢ $166 93d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 92¢ $173 93d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 92¢ $5 93d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 92¢ $12 93d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 92¢ $156 93d
Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL No 98¢ $174 93d
Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 98¢ $174 93d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? SELL No 94¢ $172 93d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? BUY No 94¢ $93 93d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? BUY No 94¢ $79 93d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $174 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.99 · official $39.99 (match) · 674 history records