Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:28:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EF 0xefe1…edcd other 170 markets active 2h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,589 (-1%) realized −$1,589 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate18%30W / 139L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$959per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$476now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$8
14 days−$14
30 days−$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$11
politics 31% −$63
sports 15% −$1,551
economics 4% −$6
world 2% −$3
culture 1% −$3
crypto 1% $0
finance 1% −$2
tech 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 37 -3.6% -12.8% 8% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 89 -1.9% -11.3% 4% 2% -11.0%
all 169 +3.9% -6.0% 18% 11% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 11% -10.4%
10% -15.0% 11% -19.0%
15% -23.2% 11% -26.8%
20% -30.7% 8% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,354) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$18 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$476
Realized−$1,589
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses30 / 139
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)169 / 170
History coverage160d
Avg bet$959
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $476 $476 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $454 −$1 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $3,587 −$4 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $297 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $782 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $734 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $733 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $3,555 −$4 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $849 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $322 +$4 +1%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $1,986 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $541 −$1 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 09 $915 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $856 −$1 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $753 −$1 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $710 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $944 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 07 $44 −$44 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,588 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $869 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,592 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $890 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $889 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,933 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 01 $377 $0 +0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $592 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $667 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $680 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $2,355 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,020 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $989 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $2,103 −$2 -0%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 25 $78 +$55 +70%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $917 −$1 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $936 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $1,274 −$2 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $681 −$1 -0%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 22 $84 +$75 +90%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 21 $894 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $715 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? May 19 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $868 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $950 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 10 $987 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $742 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $4,648 −$6 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $476 1h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $369 18h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $369 19h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $454 21h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $454 23h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $513 24h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $514 25h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $341 2d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $341 2d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $296 5d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $297 5d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $780 5d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $782 5d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $733 6d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $734 6d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $717 7d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $719 7d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $717 7d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $718 7d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $732 7d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $733 8d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $802 8d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $803 8d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $848 9d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $849 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 99¢ $157 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 98¢ $10 10d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY No 98¢ $155 10d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $846 12d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $847 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $475.99 · official $475.99 (match) · 516 history records