Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:51:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xefe3…3410 crypto 131 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$167 (-8%) realized −$167 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate63%82W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day17.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$64
7 days−$49
14 days−$131
30 days−$224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% −$79
weather 32% −$82
world 8% −$15
sports 7% −$9
other 5% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 -4.5% -13.6% 73% 64% -15.1%
≤30d 131 -7.5% -16.3% 63% 52% -19.8%
≤90d 131 -7.5% -16.3% 63% 52% -19.8%
all 131 -7.5% -16.3% 63% 52% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 52% -19.8%
10% -24.3% 38% -27.4%
15% -31.6% 23% -34.5%
20% -38.3% 10% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$167
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses82 / 49
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)131 / 131
History coverage18d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day17.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 131 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$3 +33%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$4 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $8 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $8 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 4¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 6h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 71¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $8 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $9 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $8 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $9 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $9 10h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? SELL No 1¢ $0 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 393 history records