Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:01:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EF 0xefe4…23ef crypto 2133 markets active 3d ago coverage 15d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 14d only
✗ bot/MM pace (199 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL −$386 (-10%) realized −$386 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +88% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +44% what you keep after slip
Net edge+44%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%568W / 528L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day198.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$292
7 days−$293
14 days−$273
30 days+$1,210
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$1,471
sports 8% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (199 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+69.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 198 -91.9% -92.7% 7% 7% -78.7%
≤30d 1096 +87.5% +69.7% 52% 49% +34.0%
≤90d 1096 +87.5% +69.7% 52% 49% +34.0%
all 1096 +87.5% +69.7% 52% 49% +34.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover198.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +69.7% 49% +34.0%
10% ← realistic here +53.4% 47% +21.2%
15% +38.6% 46% +9.5%
20% +25.0% 45% -1.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +88% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +121% → late +54% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.42 per $1 lost it wins $2.42
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$386
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses568 / 528
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1096 / 2133
History coverage15d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day198.6
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1096 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 6, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Boston Red Sox 83¢ $4 3d
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Boston Red Sox 84¢ $4 3d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 80¢ $4 3d
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 80¢ $4 3d
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 86¢ $4 3d
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 87¢ $4 3d
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series BUY KOLESIE 80¢ $4 3d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 87¢ $4 4d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 80¢ $4 4d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 80¢ $0 4d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 78¢ $4 4d
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 83¢ $4 4d
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 86¢ $4 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 83¢ $4 4d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 86¢ $4 4d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 83¢ $4 5d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 86¢ $4 5d
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Chicago Sky 87¢ $4 5d
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 77¢ $4 5d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 83¢ $4 5d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 86¢ $4 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 83¢ $4 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 87¢ $4 5d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 84¢ $4 6d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 83¢ $4 6d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 82¢ $4 6d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 86¢ $4 6d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 65¢ $3 6d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 82¢ $3 6d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 82¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records