Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:48:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xefe5…5e80 crypto 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$394 (-23%) realized −$394 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%13W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$82
7 days−$68
14 days−$267
30 days−$376
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$376
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -9.9% -18.4% 50% 50% -21.7%
≤30d 29 -19.9% -27.5% 45% 45% -29.6%
≤90d 29 -19.9% -27.5% 45% 45% -29.6%
all 29 -19.9% -27.5% 45% 45% -29.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.5% 45% -29.6%
10% -34.5% 41% -36.3%
15% -40.8% 41% -42.5%
20% -46.6% 41% -48.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$61 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$394
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses13 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage24d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 20 $52 +$39 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 20 $52 +$43 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 18 $68 −$66 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $67 −$65 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $67 +$58 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $69 −$67 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $71 +$54 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $66 −$64 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $67 −$65 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 12 $70 +$55 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $66 −$64 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 11 $65 −$62 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 09 $66 −$64 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 05 $73 −$70 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 05 $62 +$63 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 03 $70 +$55 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 01 $67 −$65 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 31 $65 +$60 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 31 $67 +$58 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 31 $64 −$62 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 30 $68 −$65 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 30 $63 −$61 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 29 $63 −$61 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 29 $68 +$57 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 29 $74 −$72 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 28 $68 +$57 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 28 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 27 $2 $0 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $52 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $68 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $67 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $67 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $69 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $71 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $66 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $67 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $70 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $66 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $65 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $66 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $73 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $62 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $70 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $67 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $65 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $67 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $64 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $68 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $63 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $63 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $68 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $74 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $68 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records