Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xefe8…ab0e crypto 1749 markets active 4h ago coverage 72d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 72d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$23 (+1%) realized +$24 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate90%1585W / 172L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day28.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$32
14 days−$34
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$11
other 0% −$5
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 408 -3.3% -12.5% 83% 40% -12.2%
≤30d 790 -1.7% -11.0% 85% 48% -11.0%
≤90d 1757 -1.0% -10.4% 90% 23% -10.3%
all 1757 -1.0% -10.4% 90% 23% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 23% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 3% -18.9%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.8%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$24
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses1585 / 172
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1757 / 1749
History coverage72d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day28.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1757 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 94¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will Falcons reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 93¢ 57¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 140 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 20 $0 −$3 -1790%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $0 −$4 -2442%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +18%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $1 $0 +31%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 19 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$1 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 19 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 4h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $1 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.67 · official $3.67 (match) · 3500 history records