Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:04:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xefe8…e0f2 other 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 604d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$998 (-2%) realized −$1,543 · open +$545
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate66%56W / 29L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$698per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$6,218now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$284
7 days+$801
14 days+$714
30 days+$1,274
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$994
other 24% +$340
politics 23% −$213
sports 11% −$907
economics 9% +$306
culture 1% +$407
crypto 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -14.6% -22.7% 67% 50% +6.1%
≤30d 14 -28.0% -34.8% 50% 36% +4.7%
≤90d 25 -31.0% -37.6% 48% 24% -16.4%
all 85 -13.7% -21.9% 66% 25% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 25% -12.0%
10% -29.4% 14% -20.4%
15% -36.2% 12% -28.1%
20% -42.5% 9% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$960) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$214 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

604d coverage
Net worth$6,218
Realized−$1,543
Unrealized+$545
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses56 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions6
Markets (closed)85 / 91
History coverage604d
Avg bet$698
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 91¢ 93¢ $3,267 $3,315 +$48 (+1%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 86¢ 100¢ $1,239 $1,440 +$201 (+16%)
Will Mirra Andreeva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? No 85¢ 86¢ $632 $636 +$3 (+1%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 35¢ 76¢ $241 $521 +$279 (+116%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 60¢ 68¢ $270 $306 +$36 (+13%)
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 16¢ $23 $1 −$23 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $939 +$491 +52%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $148 −$148 -100%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $775 +$112 +14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,075 +$165 +8%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 18 $634 +$239 +38%
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 10 $89 −$87 -97%
HSBC Championships: Mika Stojsavljevic vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 09 $359 −$144 -40%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 09 $82 −$82 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 09 $111 −$111 -100%
Will Canada win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 31 $1,269 +$968 +76%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Sweden May 29 $38 +$17 +44%
Roland Garros ATP: Valentin Royer vs Novak Djokovic May 27 $1,358 +$42 +3%
World Championships: Czechia vs. Norway May 25 $150 −$130 -87%
World Championships: Canada vs. Norway May 22 $248 +$49 +20%
World Championships: Sweden vs. Czechia May 18 $213 −$21 -10%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 07 $288 +$12 +4%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 30 $208 −$174 -84%
Will Tisza win at least 100 seats? Apr 13 $317 −$317 -100%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win at least 100 seats? Apr 13 $1,041 −$1,041 -100%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 13 $334 −$334 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $2,425 −$884 -36%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 05 $2,094 +$106 +5%
Ukraine hits Moscow by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $515 +$45 +9%
Trump out as President by March 31? Apr 01 $497 +$43 +9%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 16 $1,260 +$95 +8%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 12 $220 +$74 +34%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7? Mar 09 $1,157 +$63 +6%
Will It Was Just an Accident win Best Screenplay – Motion Picture at t Mar 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "Sentimental Value" win Best Motion Picture - Non-English Languag Mar 08 $12 −$12 -100%
Will "One Battle After Another" win Best Film at the 2026 BAFTA Awards Mar 08 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 ATP Shanghai Masters Men’s Singles To Mar 08 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 Terra Wortmann Open? Mar 08 $216 −$216 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 08 $870 −$870 -100%
Men's Semifinals - USA vs. Slovakia Mar 08 $840 −$840 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 07 $1,184 +$76 +6%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $1,081 +$13 +1%
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 2026 BAFTA Award Feb 23 $127 +$155 +122%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 22 $1,183 +$117 +10%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 10 $2,450 +$50 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Feb 07 $948 +$52 +6%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Feb 01 $50 −$38 -75%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $270 +$30 +11%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $2,446 +$94 +4%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 15 $392 +$44 +11%
Will Hamnet win Best Motion Picture – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes? Jan 12 $84 +$216 +257%
Ukraine hits Moscow by December 31? Jan 01 $654 +$20 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $1,021 +$139 +14%
Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic aft Dec 10 $3,534 +$2 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $1,270 +$68 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mirra Andreeva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 85¢ $510 51m
Will Mirra Andreeva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 85¢ $117 1h
Will Mirra Andreeva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 85¢ $8 1h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 91¢ $918 37h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 91¢ $42 37h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 91¢ $34 43h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 91¢ $3 43h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 91¢ $92 45h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 91¢ $2,183 45h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 83¢ $539 3d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 88¢ $704 3d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 24¢ $58 3d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Las Vegas Aces 72¢ $634 6d
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 60¢ $273 8d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 35¢ $246 8d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 29¢ $148 9d
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 16¢ $24 9d
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $318 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 92¢ $8 11d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 92¢ $10 11d
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $4 12d
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $453 12d
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 65¢ $939 13d
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 11¢ $89 13d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 92¢ $461 14d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 91¢ $26 14d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 91¢ $4 14d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 91¢ $32 14d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 91¢ $23 14d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 91¢ $27 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,218.10 · official $6,218.10 (match) · 362 history records