Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:55:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
EF 0xefe9…7aaa other 180 markets active 2h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,487 (+4%) realized +$2,337 · open +$150
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate46%78W / 93L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$384per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$2,001now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$235
7 days+$2,546
14 days+$2,404
30 days+$966
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$1,313
crypto 20% +$9
sports 11% +$662
tech 10% +$308
world 7% +$206
finance 3% +$267
culture 3% −$407
politics 3% +$54
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -5.8% -14.8% 24% 9% +50.4%
≤30d 61 -12.5% -20.9% 41% 8% -2.5%
≤90d 118 -9.9% -18.4% 46% 14% -3.8%
all 171 -8.8% -17.5% 46% 16% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 16% -6.4%
10% -25.4% 11% -15.4%
15% -32.6% 9% -23.6%
20% -39.2% 6% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$63 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$2,001
Realized+$2,337
Unrealized+$150
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses78 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions9
Markets (closed)171 / 180
History coverage166d
Avg bet$384
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 60¢ 100¢ $563 $938 +$375 (+67%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? No 90¢ 98¢ $843 $918 +$75 (+9%)
England leading at halftime? Yes 53¢ 57¢ $53 $57 +$4 (+8%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Yes 18¢ 13¢ $59 $44 −$15 (-26%)
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $165B by June 30? No 55¢ 57¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $480 in June? Yes 20¢ 3¢ $81 $11 −$70 (-87%)
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-21%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $220 $1 −$219 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $233 −$233 -100%
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $49 +$4 +8%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $175 +$8 +4%
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 17 $477 +$11 +2%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $22 −$21 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $180 +$2,327 +1290%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 16 $56 −$56 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 Egypt? Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $199 −$199 -100%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $200 +$1,300 +650%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $184 −$184 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 −$18 -72%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30? Jun 15 $270 +$266 +98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$19 -92%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $146 −$146 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $358 +$34 +10%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $64 −$64 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $80 −$78 -98%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 14 $138 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Jun 14 $26 −$19 -74%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? Jun 14 $281 +$4 +2%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 14 $371 −$81 -22%
Exact Score: Qatar 3 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? Jun 11 $27 +$1 +2%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 11 $245 −$174 -71%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 09 $588 +$24 +4%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $200 in June? Jun 09 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 07 $568 +$34 +6%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 07 $416 +$11 +3%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $208 in June? Jun 05 $5 +$5 +104%
Over $6M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 01 $962 −$946 -98%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 in May? Jun 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? Jun 01 $33 −$33 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,873 −$569 -30%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by June 30? May 31 $55 +$2 +3%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? May 30 $26 +$5 +20%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 30 $422 +$19 +4%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $680 in May? May 30 $166 +$2 +1%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $580 in May? May 30 $119 +$9 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $570 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $226 1h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $54 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 11¢ $226 24h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 24h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 24h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 24h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $510 27h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 47h
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 47h
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 47h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.3T by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $332 2d
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 2d
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $35 2d
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 2d
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY No 96¢ $175 3d
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $10 3d
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 3d
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3d
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA Wor SELL No 98¢ $488 3d
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 3¢ $15 3d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 7¢ $30 3d
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 7¢ $180 4d
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 3¢ $13 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 84¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 4d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $56 4d
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,001.20 · official $2,001.21 (match) · 893 history records