Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:38:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
EF 0xefee…5c77 other 14 markets active 3h ago coverage 17d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$222 (-4%) realized −$144 · open −$78
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$392per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$2,345now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$805
14 days−$19
30 days−$254
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$332
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -13.0% -21.3% 43% 43% -48.3%
≤30d 10 -2.7% -11.9% 50% 50% -17.1%
≤90d 10 -2.7% -11.9% 50% 50% -17.1%
all 10 -2.7% -11.9% 50% 50% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 50% -17.1%
10% -20.4% 50% -25.0%
15% -28.1% 50% -32.2%
20% -35.1% 50% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$266 vs −$317 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$2,345
Realized−$144
Unrealized−$78
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)10 / 14
History coverage17d
Avg bet$392
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 86¢ $1,000 $1,081 +$81 (+8%)
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 74¢ 68¢ $1,108 $1,020 −$88 (-8%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 57¢ $215 $177 −$38 (-18%)
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals Yes 29¢ 20¢ $100 $67 −$33 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $152 −$150 -99%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $152 +$181 +119%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $246 +$248 +101%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,003 −$1,000 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $130 +$116 +90%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $422 +$230 +55%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $508 +$556 +109%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 04 $236 −$235 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $102 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $217 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $152 3d
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $152 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 56¢ $101 4d
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 35¢ $102 4d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $246 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,003 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $130 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $422 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $508 8d
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY No 24¢ $170 17d
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? BUY No 24¢ $66 17d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $1,006 17d
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 74¢ $1,117 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,345.10 · official $2,345.10 (match) · 20 history records