Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:52:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xeff0…54af crypto 155 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (3360 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$991 (-11%) realized −$978 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate54%83W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day3360.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$314
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3360 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 154 +5.6% -4.5% 54% 47% -12.3%
≤30d 154 +5.6% -4.5% 54% 47% -12.3%
≤90d 154 +5.6% -4.5% 54% 47% -12.3%
all 154 +5.6% -4.5% 54% 47% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3360.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.5% 47% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -13.6% 45% -20.7%
15% -22.0% 36% -28.3%
20% -29.6% 18% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
18.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$23 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$978
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses83 / 71
Open positions1
Markets (closed)154 / 155
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$60
Trades / day3360.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Up 72¢ 50¢ $43 $30 −$13 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 28 $38 +$22 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 28 $39 +$20 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 28 $79 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 28 $36 −$12 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 28 $39 +$22 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 28 $82 −$51 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 28 $36 +$24 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$26 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 28 $72 −$35 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 28 $41 +$19 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 28 $83 −$49 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 28 $42 −$7 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 28 $41 +$19 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 28 $84 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 28 $83 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 28 $34 +$26 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 28 $42 +$18 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 28 $34 −$8 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $58 −$12 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 28 $44 +$16 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 28 $44 −$18 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 28 $38 −$12 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 28 $40 −$16 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 28 $34 +$22 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 28 $80 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $77 −$34 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 28 $57 −$12 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 28 $38 −$14 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 28 $77 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 28 $43 +$17 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 28 $39 −$13 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 28 $40 +$20 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 28 $36 +$24 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 28 $34 −$7 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 28 $35 −$7 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 28 $75 +$8 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 28 $77 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 28 $74 −$22 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 28 $34 −$11 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 28 $34 +$26 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 28 $41 +$19 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 28 $32 −$15 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 28 $40 +$20 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 28 $36 +$24 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 28 $38 −$14 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 28 $41 +$19 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$24 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 28 $43 +$17 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 28 $34 −$27 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 28 $168 −$100 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $7 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $7 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $7 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $7 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $7 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $7 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $13 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $6 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $7 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $6 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $7 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $7 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $7 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $7 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $7 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $0 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $8 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $4 15m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.30 · official $30.30 (match) · 3500 history records