Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:24:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EF
0xeff4…dbf2
crypto · 246 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$94 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$93 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$93
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses136 / 108
Open positions2
Markets (closed)244 / 246
History coverage14d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day20.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 244 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$79
14 days−$70
30 days−$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 51¢ 74¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+43%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$3 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $22 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$24 +321%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$6 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$94
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 120 -19.2% -26.9% 45% 39% -30.7%
≤30d 244 -8.9% -17.5% 56% 45% -17.8%
≤90d 244 -8.9% -17.5% 56% 45% -17.8%
all 244 -8.9% -17.5% 56% 45% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover20.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.5% 45% -17.8%
10% ← realistic here -25.4% 36% -25.7%
15% -32.6% 25% -32.9%
20% -39.2% 21% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.12 · official $4.35 (match) · 522 history records