Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:09:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EF 0xeff5…a9f1 crypto 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$105 (+57%) realized +$105 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +305% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +238% what you keep after slip
Net edge+238%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+266.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +304.7% +266.2% 71% 71% +22.1%
≤30d 7 +304.7% +266.2% 71% 71% +22.1%
≤90d 7 +304.7% +266.2% 71% 71% +22.1%
all 7 +304.7% +266.2% 71% 71% +22.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +266.2% 71% +22.1%
10% +231.1% 57% +10.4%
15% +199.1% 57% -0.2%
20% +169.8% 43% -10.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +305% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$22 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.53 per $1 lost it wins $2.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$105
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 21 $58 +$27 +47%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 21 $22 −$20 -92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 21 $32 +$4 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $11 +$21 +198%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $24 +$53 +222%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $11 +$8 +77%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 19 history records