Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:38:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EF 0xeff8…93f1 crypto 964 markets active 0h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$376 (-1%) realized −$375 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%439W / 523L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$344
14 days−$988
30 days−$1,256
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$1,697
other 1% −$22
world 0% −$68
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 135 +0.0% -9.5% 47% 47% -20.0%
≤30d 702 +0.4% -9.1% 46% 46% -14.1%
≤90d 934 -2.6% -11.9% 45% 45% -14.4%
all 962 +0.2% -9.4% 46% 45% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 45% -14.1%
10% -18.1% 45% -22.4%
15% -26.0% 44% -29.9%
20% -33.2% 41% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$31 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$375
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses439 / 523
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)962 / 964
History coverage143d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 962 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 21 $43 −$42 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $28 +$62 +220%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$13 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 21 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$18 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 21 $14 +$12 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $46 −$44 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$20 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 21 $14 +$11 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 21 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $37 +$63 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$22 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 20 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $12 +$11 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 20 $6 +$5 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 20 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 20 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $16 +$26 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 20 $9 +$9 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$19 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$12 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$8 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 20 $21 +$20 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$60 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$28 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 20 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 20 $36 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $42 +$41 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $19 +$45 +236%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $31 +$35 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $16 +$26 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 18m
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 34m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $16 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $91 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $7 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $21 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $29 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $14 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 4¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $21 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.68 · official $23.68 (match) · 2437 history records