Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:28:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EF 0xeff8…68eb sports 73 markets active 0h ago coverage 492d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$443 (+1%) realized +$233 · open +$210
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%29W / 42L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$883per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$771est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1,202now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,083
7 days+$4,610
14 days+$4,610
30 days+$3,692
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$588
other 13% −$2,115
politics 7% +$2,199
world 1% −$307
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +12.2% +1.5% 44% 44% +5.4%
≤30d 47 +7.4% -2.8% 43% 43% +2.0%
≤90d 58 +2.3% -7.5% 43% 43% -3.8%
all 71 +0.0% -9.5% 41% 41% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 41% -9.3%
10% -18.2% 41% -18.0%
15% -26.1% 41% -25.9%
20% -33.3% 39% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$1,021) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$992 vs −$681 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

492d coverage
Net worth$1,202
Realized+$233
Unrealized+$210
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses29 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$771
Open positions2
Markets (closed)71 / 73
History coverage492d
Avg bet$883
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score No 54¢ 68¢ $480 $605 +$124 (+26%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $512 $597 +$85 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 21 $455 +$366 +80%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $517 −$510 -99%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $1,114 +$691 +62%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $488 +$387 +79%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $512 −$500 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $586 +$1,593 +272%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $614 −$603 -98%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Phi Jun 20 $501 −$495 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $546 −$538 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $469 +$579 +124%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $512 −$500 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,066 −$1,049 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $496 −$488 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $511 −$500 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $812 +$484 +60%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,338 +$1,072 +80%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $497 −$485 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $511 −$500 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $307 +$887 +289%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $528 +$578 +109%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $114 −$111 -97%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $767 +$1,188 +155%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $897 −$879 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $503 −$493 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $490 +$910 +186%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $534 −$527 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,226 +$647 +53%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $887 −$802 -90%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $316 +$370 +117%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $410 −$97 -24%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,073 +$861 +80%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $490 −$206 -42%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $787 +$490 +62%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $446 −$435 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $577 +$656 +114%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $701 −$124 -18%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $512 −$500 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $799 +$415 +52%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $360 −$307 -85%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,021 +$1,871 +183%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $650 +$1,996 +307%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $611 −$600 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $317 +$1,090 +344%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $339 −$333 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $950 −$939 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 23 $467 −$459 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 23 $470 −$460 -98%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 19 $4,442 +$2,199 +50%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $2,543 −$2,511 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $1,730 −$1,687 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees SELL Cincinnati Reds 90¢ $821 16m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 54¢ $487 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $524 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 49¢ $455 2h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $454 2h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $501 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 52¢ $517 13h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $1,114 15h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 55¢ $488 18h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $512 18h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 88¢ $2,180 18h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $586 19h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 39¢ $614 19h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Phi BUY No 59¢ $501 21h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $546 21h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $469 22h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $512 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $1,066 41h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 49¢ $496 45h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $511 47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,296 47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $812 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 91¢ $700 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 87¢ $1,710 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,338 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $497 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $511 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 84¢ $1,194 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $307 3d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $114 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,201.85 · official $1,188.52 · 131 history records