Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:33:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EF 0xeff9…05fd other 294 markets active 2h ago coverage 123d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 122d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$27,222 (+9%) realized +$29,034 · open −$1,812
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate53%154W / 138L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$1,045per market
Trades / day25.1pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$1,643now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$470
7 days+$5,540
14 days+$11,355
30 days+$12,285
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$26,773
world 31% +$10,590
tech 8% −$401
crypto 7% −$7,323
politics 1% +$777
sports 0% −$935
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -29.1% -35.8% 40% 30% +0.3%
≤30d 40 +26.5% +14.4% 40% 32% -0.4%
≤90d 149 +17.1% +5.9% 44% 38% +5.3%
all 292 +39.2% +25.9% 53% 42% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +25.9% 42% -0.6%
10% +13.9% 33% -10.1%
15% ← realistic here +2.9% 27% -18.8%
20% -7.2% 25% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +61% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$575 vs −$421 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$1,643
Realized+$29,034
Unrealized−$1,812
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses154 / 138
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)292 / 294
History coverage123d ⚠
Avg bet$1,045
Trades / day25.1
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 292 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? No 20¢ 18¢ $955 $879 −$76 (-8%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes 34¢ 10¢ $2,500 $764 −$1,736 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 15 $1,879 −$1,862 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $14,067 +$1,392 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $2,047 −$1,277 -62%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $6,296 +$7,720 +123%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $20,103 +$2,788 +14%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $3,339 −$3,189 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1,489 +$1,748 +117%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $1,282 −$1,282 -100%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 10 $365 −$357 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1,100 +$1,100 +100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $86 −$71 -82%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $701 +$557 +79%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $91 +$459 +506%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 08 $135 −$135 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $35,675 +$3,312 +9%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $100 −$95 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $227 −$227 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $239 −$239 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $2,053 −$2,053 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $2,300 +$3,517 +153%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $160 −$160 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 03 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $98 +$702 +716%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $576 +$17 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $22,250 +$2,725 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $205 +$197 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 30 $282 −$282 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $623 +$348 +56%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $130 −$130 -100%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 26 $935 −$935 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 26 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 26 $1,008 −$999 -99%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 26 $50 +$66 +133%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 22 $299 −$299 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 22 $238 −$238 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $10 +$118 +1199%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $209 −$77 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $185 −$47 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $500 +$1,302 +260%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 17 $95 −$79 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 16 $234 −$233 -99%
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May? May 16 $2,920 +$676 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $3,544 +$1,127 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $3,453 +$9,565 +277%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 14 $310 −$310 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $238 −$238 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $986 −$986 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 18¢ $20 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 18¢ $9 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 18¢ $8 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 18¢ $7 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 20¢ $453 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 20¢ $1 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 20¢ $0 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 20¢ $99 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 20¢ $0 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 20¢ $208 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 20¢ $20 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 20¢ $20 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 20¢ $20 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 20¢ $3 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 20¢ $0 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 20¢ $0 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 20¢ $42 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 20¢ $20 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 20¢ $25 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 34¢ $2,500 28h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $17 39h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $15,459 43h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $67 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $14,000 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 5¢ $482 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $450 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 3¢ $124 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 3¢ $27 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 3¢ $24 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,642.86 · official $1,642.86 (match) · 3500 history records