Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:28:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xeffd…9b77 crypto 105 markets active 2h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$28 (-10%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate37%39W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% −$9
other 28% −$20
sports 17% −$3
world 8% $0
weather 2% −$2
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -16.3% -24.3% 38% 38% -18.3%
≤30d 8 -16.3% -24.3% 38% 38% -18.3%
≤90d 105 -15.7% -23.7% 37% 31% -21.1%
all 105 -15.7% -23.7% 37% 31% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 31% -21.1%
10% -31.0% 25% -28.6%
15% -37.7% 17% -35.5%
20% -43.8% 11% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses39 / 66
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)105 / 105
History coverage56d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 105 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +48%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 $0 -20%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -44%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$2 -55%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $4 $0 -4%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +31%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Alina Korneeva vs Ella Sei May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 09 $11 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 09 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 09 $8 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 09 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 09 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 09 $5 −$3 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 09 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 09 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 09 $8 +$1 +8%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 09 $9 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 08 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 08 $2 +$1 +42%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 08 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 07 $1 +$1 +81%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 07 $8 −$6 -72%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $3 −$2 -62%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $12 +$7 +54%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
D4vd released from custody in 2026? May 05 $1 $0 -30%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $2 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 60°F or higher on May 5? May 04 $2 $0 +21%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $1 −$1 -56%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $1 +$4 +357%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Patrick Kypson vs Jack Pin May 04 $1 $0 -18%
Canadiens vs. Lightning May 04 $2 +$3 +140%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Pistons vs. Magic May 03 $2 $0 +11%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $1 $0 +39%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $2 +$1 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C or higher on May 3? May 02 $1 $0 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 28? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 26 $1 +$2 +168%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Apr 26 $2 $0 +10%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Apr 26 $2 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Apr 26 $1 $0 -13%
NHL Playoffs: Avalanche vs. Kings Total Games O/U 5.5 Apr 26 $2 −$1 -75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 89¢ $3 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $2 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 82¢ $2 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 71¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $4 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 64¢ $4 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $4 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes $1 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 93¢ $5 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 4d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 66¢ $15 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $11 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $12 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $11 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $11 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $8 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $8 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $7 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $7 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $6 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up $2 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $10 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $9 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $9 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 234 history records