Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:14:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EF 0xefff…2d98 sports 434 markets active 0h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,562 (-17%) realized −$2,562 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%196W / 236L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$243
14 days−$5,674
30 days−$5,053
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$2,245
crypto 8% −$306
other 0% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +0.4% -9.2% 54% 54% -32.5%
≤30d 274 -44.0% -49.3% 28% 28% -59.9%
≤90d 312 -34.4% -40.7% 32% 32% -52.5%
all 432 -7.3% -16.2% 45% 44% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 44% -24.9%
10% -24.2% 43% -32.1%
15% -31.5% 41% -38.6%
20% -38.2% 38% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late -51% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$33 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$2,562
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses196 / 236
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions2
Markets (closed)432 / 434
History coverage131d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 432 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Under 54¢ 54¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $21 +$21 +99%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $32 +$20 +63%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $27 −$27 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $16 +$18 +114%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $13 −$13 -98%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $6 +$7 +121%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $9 −$9 -99%
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs Coalesce (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 15 $7 +$2 +31%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $6 +$7 +126%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$3 +134%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $8 −$8 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $7 +$4 +50%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $7 −$4 -56%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 14 $5 +$4 +81%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $7 +$4 +54%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 14 $2 +$3 +156%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 +$4 +99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $6 +$4 +62%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$9 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$4 -75%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$3 +63%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $7 +$4 +56%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $8 −$3 -37%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $9 +$6 +66%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $7 −$4 -55%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $15 +$3 +22%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$4 +185%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 13 $11 −$11 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $7 +$4 +58%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 +$2 +44%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$8 +272%
Counter-Strike: STATE vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs Jun 13 $12 −$9 -76%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 13 $6 +$5 +81%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$10 -49%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$3 +103%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $13 −$13 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $16 +$7 +46%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$4 +137%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$3 +58%
Counter-Strike: struggletony vs MASONIC - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $7 +$5 +60%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 12 $5 +$3 +59%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $3 +$2 +81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 54¢ $10 12m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $32 13m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $42 15m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $6 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $15 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 99¢ $52 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 60¢ $32 4h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 46¢ $27 5h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 63¢ $10 6h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports 27¢ $4 7h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 59¢ $10 7h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 64¢ $10 7h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 100¢ $35 7h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY RUSTEC 45¢ $13 7h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner SELL RUSTEC 99¢ $13 7h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 46¢ $16 8h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner BUY RUSTEC 44¢ $6 9h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner BUY RUSTEC 57¢ $9 10h
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs Coalesce (BO3) - United21 Group SELL Coalesce 99¢ $9 10h
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs Coalesce (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Coalesce 75¢ $7 11h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $13 24h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $6 25h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $6 25h
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner BUY Alliance 67¢ $8 26h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 42¢ $3 26h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $11 26h
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY Ursa 52¢ $4 27h
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner SELL Ursa 43¢ $3 27h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 Esports 62¢ $5 27h
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner BUY Ursa 46¢ $3 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.67 · official $41.67 (match) · 955 history records