Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:52:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F0 0xf007…d94a other 358 markets active 0h ago coverage 837d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,621 (-1%) realized −$2,646 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate91%322W / 32L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$743per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$6,035now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$40
14 days+$66
30 days+$141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$2,522
crypto 12% +$318
politics 4% −$462
world 1% +$11
sports 1% −$15
finance 1% +$1
culture 0% +$6
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +0.5% -9.1% 94% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 82 +0.4% -9.2% 99% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 258 +4.5% -5.4% 97% 2% -9.7%
all 354 +6.4% -3.7% 91% 5% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 5% -10.5%
10% -12.9% 3% -19.0%
15% -21.3% 3% -26.9%
20% -29.0% 2% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$769) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$162 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

837d coverage
Net worth$6,035
Realized−$2,646
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses322 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)354 / 358
History coverage837d
Avg bet$743
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 354 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $2,812 $2,818 +$6 (+0%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $2,461 $2,476 +$15 (+1%)
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $539 $541 +$2 (+0%)
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2027? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $197 $200 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $450 −$1 -0%
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 17 $238 +$3 +1%
Will o1 launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 17 $344 +$5 +2%
Will o1 launch a token by March 31, 2027? Jun 17 $746 +$12 +2%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $319 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $13 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $69 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $38 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $32 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $23 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $66 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $181 $0 +0%
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1,506 +$13 +1%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? Jun 15 $42 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 11? Jun 11 $1,494 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,499 +$1 +0%
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $699 +$1 +0%
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $19 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $88 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $206 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $121 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 60-79 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $61 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $89 +$5 +5%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 08 $1,543 +$14 +1%
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $84 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 25-29 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $71 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 200+ posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $26 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 50-54 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $102 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $85 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 60+ posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $76 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $43 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $333 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 55-59 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $63 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $114 +$1 +1%
Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $258 +$3 +1%
Will Khamenei post 60+ posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $354 +$1 +0%
Will CZ post 200+ posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $920 +$1 +0%
Will Khamenei post 55-59 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $316 +$1 +0%
Will CZ post 180-199 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $98 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $91 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $82 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $1,526 +$2 +0%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,269 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 28? May 28 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 28? May 28 $90 +$1 +1%
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $199 $0 +0%
Will Khamenei post 55-59 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $148 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2027? SELL Yes 100¢ $300 9m
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $414 1h
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $449 1h
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $282 1h
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $926 1h
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 100¢ $159 1h
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 1h
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2027? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 1h
Will o1 launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 100¢ $250 1h
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2027? SELL Yes 100¢ $114 1h
Will o1 launch a token by March 31, 2027? SELL Yes 100¢ $748 1h
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $114 1h
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $450 2h
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,079 2h
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $181 27h
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $66 27h
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $319 27h
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 32h
Will CZ post 80-99 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 32h
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 32h
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 32h
Will CZ post 160-179 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $69 32h
Will o1 launch a token by March 31, 2027? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 43h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? SELL No 100¢ $4 2d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? SELL No 100¢ $38 2d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2027? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 2d
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 2d
Will o1 launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 2d
Will o1 launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,035.25 · official $6,035.25 (match) · 1334 history records