Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:51:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F0 0xf009…19e9 sports 1399 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 150d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$739 (+1%) realized +$747 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%545W / 849L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Fees−$353est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$615
7 days+$1,287
14 days+$1,386
30 days+$1,263
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$1,756
other 42% −$1,067
world 0% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 +34.5% +21.7% 35% 35% +34.0%
≤30d 211 +15.4% +4.4% 35% 35% +7.0%
≤90d 719 +9.0% -1.3% 38% 38% -2.7%
all 1394 +2.7% -7.1% 39% 38% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 38% -8.6%
10% -15.9% 37% -17.3%
15% -24.1% 35% -25.3%
20% -31.5% 33% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$37 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$137
Realized+$747
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses545 / 849
Est. fees paid−$353
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1394 / 1399
History coverage150d ⚠
Avg bet$45
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1394 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 55¢ $56 $55 −$1 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 Over 11¢ 10¢ $35 $33 −$2 (-5%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Over 25¢ 24¢ $26 $24 −$2 (-6%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 5.5 Over 5¢ 4¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-10%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Over 2¢ 2¢ $12 $9 −$3 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $15 +$111 +737%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $44 −$35 -80%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $35 +$111 +315%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $48 +$57 +119%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $31 +$242 +785%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $52 +$50 +97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $15 −$3 -21%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $32 +$15 +46%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $46 +$56 +123%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $54 −$54 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $12 +$106 +856%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $16 +$116 +706%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $41 +$214 +521%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $53 +$51 +97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $19 +$25 +133%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $43 +$60 +139%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $33 −$20 -62%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $47 +$55 +118%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $22 −$18 -83%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $31 −$6 -19%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $10 −$2 -22%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $10 −$7 -68%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $43 +$60 +139%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $51 +$89 +174%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $53 +$49 +93%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $27 43m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 2¢ $12 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $16 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $36 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $57 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 6¢ $12 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 64¢ $126 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 9¢ $9 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 67¢ $146 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 BUY Over 1¢ $6 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $4 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $30 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $1 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $0 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $0 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 8¢ $15 2h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $44 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $15 5h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $31 5h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $48 5h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $11 13h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $2 14h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $1 14h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $2 14h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $1 14h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $2 14h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $2 14h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $2 14h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $2 14h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 20¢ $26 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.59 · official $135.74 (match) · 3500 history records