Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:28:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf009…a32a other 151 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,264 (-1%) realized −$2,264 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate16%24W / 125L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,453per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$1,122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$21
14 days−$38
30 days−$254
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$128
other 44% −$1,618
sports 7% −$546
world 2% −$6
culture 1% −$3
economics 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 33 -9.2% -17.8% 6% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 103 +0.1% -9.5% 10% 4% -9.6%
all 149 -4.3% -13.4% 16% 9% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 9% -10.5%
10% -21.7% 9% -19.0%
15% -29.3% 8% -26.9%
20% -36.2% 7% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,284) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$27 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$1,122
Realized−$2,264
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses24 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)149 / 151
History coverage128d
Avg bet$1,453
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $781 $780 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $342 $342 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $7,289 −$8 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 22 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $2,269 −$3 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $1,878 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $5,109 −$5 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $842 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $2,580 −$3 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $873 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,443 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,565 −$3 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $2,583 −$4 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,197 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,210 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,358 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $2,589 −$3 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,140 −$2 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 07 $86 −$86 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $2,628 −$3 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $2,527 −$4 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $2,868 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $878 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 02 $360 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? Jun 02 $562 +$1 +0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $4,348 −$6 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $418 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $2,434 −$3 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $1,809 −$3 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $5,469 −$6 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $560 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 25 $707 −$1 -0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $1,206 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $5,663 −$6 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,220 −$2 -0%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $59 +$31 +52%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $2,830 −$4 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $1,449 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,572 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $1,385 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $5,325 −$7 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $3,922 −$4 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $1,312 −$3 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,217 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $4,265 −$5 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $1,321 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $2,718 −$4 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $2,531 −$3 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $1,323 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $781 2h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $624 3h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $625 4h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $551 7h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $551 8h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $747 4d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $748 4d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $410 4d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $411 4d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $530 5d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $531 5d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $841 6d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $842 6d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $893 7d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $894 7d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $863 7d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $864 7d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $872 7d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $873 8d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $862 8d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $864 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $342 10d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,302 12d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,304 12d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,295 12d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,297 12d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,195 13d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,197 13d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,208 13d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,210 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,122.16 · official $1,122.16 (match) · 511 history records