Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:42:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F0 0xf009…43d0 sports 317 markets active 2h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,313 (-5%) realized −$5,314 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%153W / 158L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$362per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$1,584est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$401now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$300
7 days+$2,636
14 days+$2,636
30 days+$2,646
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$4,924
other 8% −$2,336
crypto 4% +$569
world 0% −$100
economics 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +46.6% +32.6% 62% 62% +36.8%
≤30d 20 +35.4% +22.5% 60% 60% +26.7%
≤90d 311 +0.4% -9.2% 49% 47% -14.8%
all 311 +0.4% -9.2% 49% 47% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 47% -14.8%
10% -17.9% 44% -23.0%
15% -25.8% 41% -30.4%
20% -33.1% 35% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$285 vs −$319 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$401
Realized−$5,314
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses153 / 158
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$1,584
Open positions2
Markets (closed)311 / 317
History coverage81d
Avg bet$362
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 311 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Over 38¢ 40¢ $200 $213 +$13 (+7%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $187 −$13 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 144 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $506 +$300 +59%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $204 +$510 +250%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $205 −$200 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $304 +$284 +93%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $205 −$200 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $204 +$462 +226%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $203 +$161 +79%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $202 +$131 +65%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $204 +$421 +206%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $609 +$1,519 +250%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $407 −$400 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $205 −$200 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $406 −$400 -98%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals Jun 15 $306 −$300 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $405 +$322 +79%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $605 +$227 +38%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 04 $15 −$15 -95%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 27 $468 −$468 -100%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) May 23 $204 +$278 +136%
Spread: Vissel Kōbe (-1.5) May 23 $785 +$215 +27%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 19 $123 −$120 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers May 16 $621 −$612 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $316 +$306 +97%
Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 1.5 May 13 $880 −$873 -99%
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 2.5 May 13 $286 +$139 +48%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $203 −$200 -99%
Goyang vs. KCC Egis May 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5 May 13 $102 +$126 +124%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics May 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5 May 12 $51 −$50 -98%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Levante UD: O/U 3.5 May 12 $102 +$210 +206%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes May 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 214.5 May 12 $51 +$53 +105%
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) May 12 $386 +$422 +109%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5 May 11 $507 −$500 -99%
FK Pari Nizhnii Novgorod vs. PFK CSKA Moskva: Both Teams to Score May 11 $203 −$200 -98%
FK Akron Tolyatti vs. FK Rostov: Both Teams to Score May 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Tottenham Hotspur FC (-1.5) May 11 $204 −$200 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 11 $51 −$50 -98%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 May 10 $51 +$60 +118%
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 10 $51 +$47 +93%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 2.5 May 10 $102 +$126 +124%
Hellas Verona FC vs. Como 1907: Both Teams to Score May 10 $51 −$50 -98%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Kiwoom Heroes May 10 $51 +$53 +104%
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians May 10 $51 +$49 +97%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 May 10 $102 +$111 +109%
SS Lazio vs. FC Internazionale Milano: Both Teams to Score May 09 $51 −$50 -99%
FC Augsburg vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 3.5 May 09 $203 +$227 +112%
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5 May 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles May 09 $51 +$49 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $204 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY 30¢ $204 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $806 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $506 7h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 0.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (- BUY 40¢ $305 7h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY 39¢ $407 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $205 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $204 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $304 2d
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $205 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 52¢ $304 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $666 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $204 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $363 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 55¢ $203 3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $202 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $204 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $609 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $407 5d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $205 5d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $406 5d
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $306 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $405 6d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $832 6d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 72¢ $605 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes $15 16d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 23¢ $0 24d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) BUY Paris Saint-Germain FC 23¢ $28 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $400.56 · official $600.56 · 661 history records