Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:34:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf00c…efc3 sports 39 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$175 (-3%) realized +$52 · open −$227
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%17W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$76est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$306
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -13.6% -21.9% 49% 49% -11.0%
≤30d 35 -13.6% -21.9% 49% 49% -11.0%
≤90d 35 -13.6% -21.9% 49% 49% -11.0%
all 35 -13.6% -21.9% 49% 49% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 49% -11.0%
10% -29.3% 49% -19.6%
15% -36.2% 46% -27.3%
20% -42.4% 34% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$113 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized+$52
Unrealized−$227
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses17 / 18
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions3
Markets (closed)35 / 39
History coverage5d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Set 1 Winner: Zverev vs Fritz Fritz 47¢ 20¢ $156 $67 −$89 (-57%)
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz 46¢ 28¢ $100 $62 −$38 (-38%)
Set 1 Winner: Nakashima vs Cerundolo Cerundolo 36¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $317 +$105 +33%
Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs Pegula Jun 20 $102 +$120 +118%
Set 1 Winner: Pliskova vs Bouzkova Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $199 −$196 -98%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $102 +$116 +114%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $101 +$66 +65%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $97 −$96 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Altmaier vs Medvedev Jun 19 $298 +$131 +44%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Set 2 Winner: Zverev vs Collignon Jun 19 $101 +$48 +48%
Set 1 Winner: Fery vs Cerundolo Jun 19 $101 +$70 +69%
Set 1 Winner: Zverev vs Collignon Jun 19 $101 +$48 +48%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $74 −$73 -98%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $196 −$193 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $101 +$44 +44%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $102 +$131 +129%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $101 +$66 +65%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $598 +$557 +93%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $101 +$84 +83%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $185 −$183 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $93 −$91 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Set Handicap: Medvedev (-1.5) vs Atmane (+1.5) Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$74 +73%
Set Handicap: Lehecka (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5) Jun 16 $101 +$87 +86%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $102 +$103 +101%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $100 −$98 -98%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $108 −$107 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $100 +$110 +110%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Sweden BUY 54¢ $3 10m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score AND Netherlands vs. Sweden BUY 59¢ $159 11m
Set 1 Winner: Zverev vs Fritz BUY Fritz 47¢ $159 15m
Set 1 Winner: Nakashima vs Cerundolo BUY Cerundolo 36¢ $102 54m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Jessica Pegula 76¢ $422 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 57¢ $222 2h
Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs Pegula SELL Pegula 100¢ $222 2h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 54¢ $95 3h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 46¢ $102 3h
Set 1 Winner: Pliskova vs Bouzkova BUY Pliskova 49¢ $102 3h
Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs Pegula BUY Pegula 45¢ $102 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $199 15h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $97 21h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniel Altmaier 46¢ $102 21h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 60¢ $101 21h
Set 1 Winner: Altmaier vs Medvedev SELL Altmaier 100¢ $429 21h
Set 1 Winner: Altmaier vs Medvedev BUY Altmaier 69¢ $298 22h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 45¢ $102 22h
Set 2 Winner: Zverev vs Collignon SELL Zverev 100¢ $149 22h
Set 1 Winner: Fery vs Cerundolo SELL Cerundolo 100¢ $171 22h
Set 2 Winner: Zverev vs Collignon BUY Zverev 67¢ $101 23h
Set 1 Winner: Fery vs Cerundolo BUY Cerundolo 58¢ $101 23h
Set 1 Winner: Zverev vs Collignon SELL Zverev 100¢ $149 23h
Set 1 Winner: Zverev vs Collignon BUY Zverev 67¢ $101 24h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 44¢ $74 24h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 46¢ $196 31h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 40h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $101 40h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $101 41h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $167 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.67 · official $242.57 · 60 history records