Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:59:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F0 0xf011…2551 crypto 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 223d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate89%8W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,819per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$17
other 0% +$11
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +17.6% +6.4% 100% 100% +6.4%
≤30d 1 +17.6% +6.4% 100% 100% +6.4%
≤90d 4 +6.7% -3.5% 100% 25% -1.7%
all 9 +3.3% -6.5% 89% 11% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.5% 11% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -15.5% 0% -18.2%
15% -23.6% 0% -26.1%
20% -31.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% too few recent
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$18 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses8 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage223d
Avg bet$1,819
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $71 $71 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Jun 22 $29 +$5 +18%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Apr 09 $31 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 09 $62 +$5 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Mar 05 $58 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $190 in February? Mar 05 $61 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Feb 24 $116 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Jan 27 $17,750 −$18 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Jan 19 $14 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $71 1h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 86d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? BUY No 85¢ $29 99d
Will Solana reach $160 in March? BUY No 100¢ $31 103d
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? BUY No 92¢ $62 105d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $58 115d
Will Solana reach $190 in February? BUY No 100¢ $61 117d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? SELL No 100¢ $117 118d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? BUY No 99¢ $116 127d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? SELL No 100¢ $17,732 146d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $17,750 146d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem BUY Yes 97¢ $7 222d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem BUY Yes 97¢ $7 222d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.63 · official $70.63 (match) · 20 history records