Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:46:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F0 0xf01a…f231 world 83 markets active 0h ago coverage 137d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable world specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3,793 (+3%) realized +$6,368 · open −$2,575
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate81%46W / 11L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$1,320per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$12,476now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 137d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$1,986
politics 29% −$2,764
crypto 12% +$89
other 3% +$1,480
sports 0% +$49
culture 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +19.1% +7.8% 91% 36% +12.7%
≤30d 41 +14.9% +3.9% 85% 29% -0.9%
≤90d 55 +11.6% +1.0% 80% 24% -5.3%
all 57 +11.3% +0.7% 81% 23% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.7% 23% -5.3%
10% -9.0% 14% -14.4%
15% -17.7% 11% -22.7%
20% -25.8% 11% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$742) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$5 · ×13.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×71.47 per $1 lost it wins $71.47
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$12,476
Realized+$6,368
Unrealized−$2,575
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses46 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions26
Markets (closed)57 / 83
History coverage137d
Avg bet$1,320
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 83¢ $4,250 $7,080 +$2,830 (+67%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 17¢ $4,250 $1,420 −$2,830 (-67%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $1,256 $1,303 +$47 (+4%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 65¢ 71¢ $588 $646 +$58 (+10%)
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? No 91¢ 93¢ $553 $561 +$8 (+2%)
Next Token Sale on Coinbase by June 30, 2026? No 82¢ 93¢ $211 $239 +$28 (+13%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $196 $197 +$1 (+1%)
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026? No 81¢ 91¢ $103 $116 +$13 (+12%)
Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by June 30? No 82¢ 84¢ $107 $109 +$2 (+2%)
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 58¢ $92 $107 +$15 (+16%)
Next Token Sale on Coinbase by December 31, 2026? Yes 36¢ 44¢ $83 $104 +$21 (+25%)
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by June 30, 2026? No 78¢ 88¢ $78 $88 +$10 (+13%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 80¢ 94¢ $48 $57 +$8 (+18%)
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $51 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 94¢ $48 $51 +$3 (+7%)
Will pump.fun buybacks hit $500M by December 31? No 54¢ 54¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+1%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Yes 78¢ 92¢ $39 $46 +$7 (+17%)
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 59¢ 70¢ $36 $43 +$7 (+19%)
Zcash's Orchard pool confirmed exploited? Yes 3¢ 13¢ $7 $36 +$29 (+422%)
Will a new country buy Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? No 72¢ 90¢ $26 $33 +$7 (+25%)
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? Yes 38¢ 26¢ $43 $30 −$13 (-31%)
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? No 61¢ 94¢ $18 $28 +$10 (+55%)
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? Yes 55¢ 60¢ $22 $24 +$2 (+8%)
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31? No 61¢ 65¢ $19 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by July 31? Yes 26¢ 22¢ $23 $20 −$3 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 18 $3,053 +$3 +0%
Will anyone say "Six Seven" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +10%
Will anyone say "Ninja" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $18 +$1 +6%
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31? Jun 15 $636 +$8 +1%
Will anyone say "Morty" 10+ times during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Will anyone say "Space" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 14 $5 −$3 -56%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $957 +$24 +2%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $3,000 +$1,000 +33%
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 12 $48 +$1 +2%
Reppo FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 11 $500 +$500 +100%
Will Reppo launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 11 $547 +$618 +113%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $250 $0 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $299 +$1 +0%
Will Russia enter Dobropillia by June 30? Jun 09 $76 +$3 +4%
Will anyone say "Six Seven" during Rick and Morty E3 S9? Jun 08 $30 −$10 -34%
Will anyone say "Jerry" during Rick and Morty E3 S9? Jun 08 $467 +$10 +2%
Will Russia capture Borova by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $46 +$26 +56%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 07 $8 −$6 -73%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $361 +$16 +4%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $98 +$1 +1%
Cuba leader Miguel Diaz-Canel in US custody by June 30? Jun 05 $93 +$5 +5%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? Jun 04 $48 +$70 +146%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $4,877 +$23 +0%
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by December 31? Jun 01 $18 $0 -2%
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by May 31? Jun 01 $41 +$6 +16%
Will Russia enter Mykhailivka by May 31? Jun 01 $152 +$26 +17%
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by May 31? Jun 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by May 31? Jun 01 $28 +$2 +6%
Will Russia enter Moskovka by May 31? Jun 01 $1,086 +$25 +2%
Will Russia capture Toretske by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $15 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by May 31? Jun 01 $369 +$31 +8%
Will Russia capture Kindrativka by May 31? May 31 $547 +$95 +18%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by June 30? May 30 $3,331 +$15 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31? May 29 $1,177 +$136 +12%
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31? May 29 $68 −$4 -6%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? May 29 $275 +$7 +2%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $500 +$171 +34%
Will Trump Mobile release a phone by June 30, 2026? May 25 $4 +$11 +271%
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31? May 24 $6,358 +$140 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026? May 21 $2,236 +$97 +4%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $4 $0 +2%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30? May 17 $52 +$1 +1%
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31? May 17 $7,784 +$10 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 08 $12,000 $0 +0%
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? May 04 $6,993 +$7 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027? May 03 $5,000 $0 +0%
Over $800M crypto hack value in 2026? May 01 $8,644 +$57 +1%
Pump.fun revenue above $25M in April? May 01 $85 +$261 +308%
Another crypto hack over $100m by April 30? May 01 $34 +$2 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $64 19m
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by June 30, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $47 21m
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $7 58m
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by June 30, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $31 1h
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $28 1h
Next Token Sale on Coinbase by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $12 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,498 14h
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $24 16h
Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $55 20h
Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $55 20h
Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $55 20h
Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $55 20h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $256 24h
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $172 33h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 61¢ $102 44h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $88 2d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 65¢ $65 2d
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31? BUY No 61¢ $19 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $101 2d
Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 60¢ $5 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $79 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $60 2d
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $298 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $19 3d
Will Russia enter Kindrashivka by July 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $310 3d
Will anyone say "Space" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will anyone say "Ninja" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will anyone say "Ninja" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? BUY No 94¢ $18 3d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $4 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,476.15 · official $12,474.07 (match) · 522 history records