Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:43:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf01d…bb31 weather 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$29 (-6%) realized −$78 · open +$49
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate11%2W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$252now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$1
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-31.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -24.3% -31.5% 11% 11% -24.6%
≤30d 18 -24.3% -31.5% 11% 11% -24.6%
≤90d 18 -24.3% -31.5% 11% 11% -24.6%
all 18 -24.3% -31.5% 11% 11% -24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.5% 11% -24.6%
10% -38.1% 6% -31.8%
15% -44.0% 0% -38.4%
20% -49.5% 0% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$252
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$49
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses2 / 16
Open positions5
Markets (closed)18 / 23
History coverage2d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 27? No 75¢ 100¢ $66 $88 +$22 (+34%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 27? No 66¢ 96¢ $49 $71 +$22 (+45%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 27? No 73¢ 92¢ $40 $50 +$10 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 27? No 63¢ 52¢ $28 $23 −$5 (-18%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 27? No 61¢ 60¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 27? Jun 27 $28 −$17 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? Jun 27 $37 −$8 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 27? Jun 27 $89 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $4 −$1 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 37°C on June 26? Jun 26 $6 −$1 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 26? Jun 26 $11 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 26? Jun 26 $6 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 26? Jun 26 $8 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 26? Jun 26 $10 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 26? Jun 26 $19 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 26? Jun 26 $15 −$2 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 26? Jun 26 $9 −$8 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 26? Jun 26 $6 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 26? Jun 26 $8 −$4 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 26? Jun 26 $6 −$3 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 26? Jun 26 $26 −$10 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 26? Jun 26 $4 $0 -3%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 $0 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 27? SELL No 30¢ $11 50m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 27? BUY No 63¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? SELL No 55¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 27? BUY No 73¢ $40 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 27? SELL No 80¢ $99 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 27? BUY No 61¢ $21 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 27? BUY No 72¢ $28 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 27? BUY No 68¢ $37 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 27? BUY No 66¢ $50 5h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 27? BUY No 75¢ $66 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 27? BUY No 71¢ $89 5h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 26? SELL No 51¢ $4 20h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 37°C on June 26? SELL No 59¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 26? SELL No 73¢ $9 20h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $7 20h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 26? SELL No 62¢ $7 20h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 26? SELL No 62¢ $8 20h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 26? BUY No 70¢ $10 20h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 26? SELL No 73¢ $19 21h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 37°C on June 26? BUY No 70¢ $6 21h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on June 26? SELL No 60¢ $12 22h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 26? BUY No 60¢ $4 22h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 26? SELL No $0 22h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 26? BUY No 80¢ $6 24h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 26? SELL No 69¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 26? BUY No 75¢ $6 26h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 26? BUY No 65¢ $8 26h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 26? SELL No 36¢ $4 26h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 26? SELL No 39¢ $3 26h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 26? BUY No 74¢ $9 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $251.55 · official $251.55 (match) · 41 history records