Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:27:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf01f…0a8a other 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate47%21W / 24L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$5
world 26% −$1
sports 20% −$1
finance 6% $0
politics 5% +$1
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.3% -10.7% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 5 -1.0% -10.4% 20% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 16 -0.4% -9.9% 25% 0% -9.8%
all 45 -4.0% -13.1% 47% 2% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 2% -9.0%
10% -21.4% 2% -17.7%
15% -29.0% 0% -25.7%
20% -36.0% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.51 per $1 lost it wins $2.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses21 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage458d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $28 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $25 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $13 −$1 -5%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $29 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $58 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 25 $24 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 23 $26 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $27 −$1 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 20 $27 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $29 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $26 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 20 $7 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $27 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 18 $1 $0 +0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 19 $13 +$4 +27%
Peyton Watson: Rebounds O/U 6.5 Mar 18 $26 $0 +0%
Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5) Mar 17 $32 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 16 $172 +$2 +1%
Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Mar 16 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jun 26 $9 $0 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in May? Jun 02 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 23–30? May 31 $9 $0 +4%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? May 30 $8 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jun-seok endorse Kim Moon-soo? May 29 $9 $0 +1%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 28 $9 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? May 27 $9 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 23–30? May 27 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Friedrich Merz in 2025? May 26 $8 $0 -0%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend May 26 $1 $0 -6%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? May 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the People Power Party win the South Korean Pr May 24 $9 $0 -2%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $9 +$1 +10%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? Apr 20 $1 $0 -12%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Cameron Ward be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Mar 28? Mar 29 $12 $0 +2%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Mar 24 $13 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $28 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $28 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $10 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $16 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $25 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $12 34h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $13 36h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $11 38h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $18 38h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $29 39h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $3 28d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $24 30d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $24 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $27 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $29 30d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $27 31d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $27 31d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 88¢ $10 31d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 88¢ $17 31d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $26 32d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 92¢ $26 32d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $27 32d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 32d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $29 32d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 48¢ $27 35d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 48¢ $27 35d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $29 35d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $29 35d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $27 35d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $18 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 112 history records