Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:37:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F0 0xf020…0c11 other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$729 (+43%) realized +$733 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +38% what you keep after slip
Net edge+38%after slip
Net WR88%break-even
Win rate88%7W / 1L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$371now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$432
7 days+$550
14 days+$595
30 days+$595
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$429
sports 11% +$163
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +88%
net ROI/market (all)+38.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +48.5% +34.3% 86% 86% +30.2%
≤30d 8 +52.8% +38.2% 88% 88% +31.6%
≤90d 8 +52.8% +38.2% 88% 88% +31.6%
all 8 +52.8% +38.2% 88% 88% +31.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +38.2% 88% +31.6%
10% +25.0% 88% +19.0%
15% +12.9% 88% +7.5%
20% +1.8% 50% -3.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +46% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +53% · $-wt +46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$132 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.49 per $1 lost it wins $5.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$371
Realized+$733
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses7 / 1
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage8d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $336 $333 −$3 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $39 $38 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $134 −$132 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $254 +$101 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $432 +$316 +73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 +$99 +49%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$49 +48%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $96 +$54 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $37 +$63 +172%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $55 +$45 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $339 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $134 3h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $40 5h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $254 18h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $302 36h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $130 39h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $201 42h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 63¢ $96 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $37 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $55 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $370.73 · official $370.73 (match) · 18 history records