trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? | Yes | 28¢ | 37¢ | $76 | $102 | +$26 (+34%) |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 4¢ | 2¢ | $10 | $5 | −$5 (-45%) |
| Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) | Boston Red Sox | 46¢ | 54¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+16%) |
| Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? | Yes | 29¢ | 28¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-5%) |
| Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? | Yes | 26¢ | 22¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-17%) |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 39¢ | 40¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 16¢ | 15¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-8%) |
| Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? | Yes | 3¢ | 3¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-15%) |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | Yes | 41¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET | Jun 14 | $15 | +$4 | +26% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | Jun 14 | $1 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? | Jun 14 | $5 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? | Jun 14 | $2 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by September 30? | Jun 14 | $1 | $0 | -15% |
| Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30? | Jun 14 | $3 | −$1 | -43% |
| Will Russia capture all of Lyman by June 30, 2026? | Jun 14 | $1 | $0 | -46% |
| Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by July 31? | Jun 14 | $6 | −$4 | -61% |
| Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) | Jun 12 | $4 | −$3 | -74% |
| Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30? | Jun 10 | $3 | −$2 | -71% |
| Spread: Golden Knights (-2.5) | Jun 10 | $2 | $0 | +20% |
| Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) | Jun 07 | $5 | +$2 | +38% |
| Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) | Jun 03 | $1 | +$1 | +52% |
| Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Colum | May 31 | $1 | $0 | +41% |
| Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Co | May 31 | $25 | +$104 | +415% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | May 30 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31? | May 30 | $1 | $0 | +9% |
| Hurricanes vs. Canadiens | May 26 | $1 | +$1 | +73% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 12 | -17.8% | -25.7% | 50% | 25% | -17.4% |
| ≤30d | 18 | +15.4% | +4.4% | 61% | 39% | +106.2% |
| ≤90d | 18 | +15.4% | +4.4% | 61% | 39% | +106.2% |
| all | 18 | +15.4% | +4.4% | 61% | 39% | +106.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +4.4% | 39% | +106.2% |
| 10% | -5.6% | 33% | +86.5% |
| 15% | -14.7% | 28% | +68.5% |
| 20% | -23.1% | 17% | +52.0% |