Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:52:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf021…e900 sports 195 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (488 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$15,704 (+8%) realized +$15,736 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate42%93W / 126L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$1,030per market
Trades / day488.2pace
Fees−$2,616est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$3,663
other 31% +$3,367
crypto 0% +$6
world 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (488 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 218 +12.6% +1.9% 42% 26% -8.1%
≤30d 219 +13.3% +2.5% 42% 26% -8.1%
≤90d 219 +13.3% +2.5% 42% 26% -8.1%
all 219 +13.3% +2.5% 42% 26% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover488.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.5% 26% -8.1%
10% -7.3% 19% -16.9%
15% ← realistic here -16.2% 11% -24.9%
20% -24.5% 10% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$917) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +29% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$312 vs −$224 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized+$15,736
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses93 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$2,616
Open positions4
Markets (closed)219 / 195
History coverage7d ⚠
Avg bet$1,030
Trades / day488.2
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 219 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 5¢ 13¢ $15 $40 +$25 (+160%)
Will SD Almeria achieve promotion from LALIGA 2 to LALIGA for the 2026-27 season? Yes 41¢ 49¢ $31 $37 +$6 (+19%)
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? No 1¢ 0¢ $49 $19 −$30 (-61%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 99 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $408 −$413 -101%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-05-17? Jun 15 $1 +$58 +5778%
France leading at halftime? Jun 15 $200 −$197 -98%
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Kawasaki Frontale vs. Sanfrecce Hiroshima: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Portugal vs. Chile: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,110 −$1,100 -99%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-17? Jun 15 $100 −$120 -120%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,130 −$981 -87%
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-06-06? Jun 15 $50 −$1,517 -3060%
Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-06-06? Jun 15 $264 −$314 -119%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? Jun 15 $25 −$130 -522%
Falkirk FC vs. Rangers FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $600 −$600 -100%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-16? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will SK Brann win on 2026-05-16? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Palermo FC vs. US Catanzaro 1929: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Shimizu S-Pulse end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $75 −$55 -73%
Kyōto Sanga FC vs. Kashiwa Reysol: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $197 −$197 -100%
RS Berkane vs. IR Tanger: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 −$25 -121%
Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Newcastle United Jets FC vs. Sydney FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $197 −$187 -95%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $48 −$181 -378%
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 15 $1 −$265 -19990%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $149 +$4 +3%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,563 −$66 -4%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,297 +$325 +25%
Belgium to win the second half? Jun 15 $1,618 −$1,064 -66%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $203 −$100 -49%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,501 −$358 -24%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1,124 +$80 +7%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $2,788 +$887 +32%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $865 +$717 +83%
Spain to win the second half? Jun 15 $110 +$30 +27%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,615 +$2,031 +126%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $44 −$43 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,016 +$24 +2%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $153 −$152 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $200 −$170 -85%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $635 +$220 +35%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $22 +$4 +19%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1,438 −$735 -51%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $4,114 +$2,517 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium to win the second half? SELL No 1¢ $0 55m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 85¢ $50 57m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 85¢ $50 57m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 85¢ $50 57m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 85¢ $50 57m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 85¢ $50 57m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 85¢ $50 57m
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 79¢ $4 58m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $32 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 6¢ $0 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 6¢ $23 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 6¢ $28 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 6¢ $51 1h
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? BUY No 1¢ $2 1h
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? BUY No 1¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 61¢ $271 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 61¢ $24 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 61¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 61¢ $20 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 61¢ $9 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 61¢ $3 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 61¢ $3 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 61¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 61¢ $7 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 61¢ $3 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 61¢ $9 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 61¢ $152 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.57 · official $96.44 (match) · 3500 history records