Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:31:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F0 0xf024…fbd3 sports 344 markets active 0h ago coverage 41d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 40d only
✗ bot/MM pace (78 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8,245 (-3%) realized −$8,123 · open −$122
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate76%275W / 87L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$801per market
Trades / day77.9pace
Fees−$2,473est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$2,538now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7,534
7 days−$7,097
14 days−$6,567
30 days−$7,854
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$454
other 25% −$117
crypto 9% −$62
weather 2% −$220
politics 0% +$124
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (78 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -45.7% -50.9% 27% 8% -40.9%
≤30d 200 -14.6% -22.7% 67% 8% -13.3%
≤90d 362 -9.5% -18.1% 76% 6% -12.2%
all 362 -9.5% -18.1% 76% 6% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover77.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.1% 6% -12.2%
10% -26.0% 3% -20.6%
15% ← realistic here -33.1% 2% -28.3%
20% -39.7% 2% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$934) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$181 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$2,538
Realized−$8,123
Unrealized−$122
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses275 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$2,473
Open positions9
Markets (closed)362 / 344
History coverage41d ⚠
Avg bet$801
Trades / day77.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 362 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? Yes 69¢ 63¢ $1,251 $1,146 −$105 (-8%)
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 98¢ $427 $435 +$7 (+2%)
Will Top Esports win MSI 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $294 $294 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $285 $278 −$6 (-2%)
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? Yes 22¢ 32¢ $160 $236 +$75 (+47%)
Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026? Yes 30¢ 34¢ $60 $67 +$7 (+12%)
Will T1 win MSI 2026? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $52 $53 +$1 (+2%)
Will Loopscale launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 63¢ 14¢ $125 $27 −$98 (-79%)
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? Under 98¢ 50¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 22 $1,560 −$1,560 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Jun 22 $286 −$276 -97%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 22 $379 −$379 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 22 $349 −$349 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qual Jun 22 $566 −$549 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 12AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 -46%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 22 $122 −$122 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Jun 22 $1,724 −$1,814 -105%
LoL: LGD Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jun 22 $205 −$205 -100%
LoL: Oh My God vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jun 22 $290 −$290 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 17? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 22 $698 −$763 -109%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 17? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 4AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 22 $412 −$439 -106%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 22 $70 −$70 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 22 $307 −$307 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 22 $249 −$249 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: T1 vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $2 −$2 -109%
Spread: Uruguay (-5.5) Jun 22 $62 $0 +0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $370 $0 +0%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-4.5) Jun 21 $999 +$1 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,924 +$56 +3%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $1,244 +$1 +0%
Spread: Sweden (-5.5) Jun 20 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $994 +$2 +0%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $890 +$110 +12%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $215 −$215 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $200 +$300 +150%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $600 +$400 +67%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $34 −$34 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $99 $0 +0%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $190 −$190 -100%
Game Handicap: FORZE Esports (-1.5) vs The Soulless Team (+1.5) Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 16 $245 −$245 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $188 −$58 -31%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $60 +$540 +900%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,956 $0 +0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $170 +$10 +6%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $275 −$150 -54%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,934 −$60 -3%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $224 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $28 10m
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $28 28m
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $373 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-5.5) BUY Cabo Verde 100¢ $44 3h
Spread: Uruguay (-5.5) BUY Cabo Verde 100¢ $19 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 100¢ $370 11h
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-4.5) BUY Spain 100¢ $999 11h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 96¢ $528 16h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $1,924 17h
Will Top Esports win MSI 2026? SELL No 97¢ $29 21h
Will Top Esports win MSI 2026? SELL No 97¢ $57 21h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 100¢ $1,244 21h
Will Top Esports win MSI 2026? BUY No 95¢ $190 32h
Spread: Sweden (-5.5) BUY Netherlands 100¢ $1,998 33h
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $840 41h
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $276 3d
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $142 3d
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 99¢ $673 4d
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 99¢ $26 4d
Will T1 win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $28 4d
Will T1 win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 4d
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 99¢ $295 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $132 4d
Japan leading at halftime? BUY No 54¢ $11 4d
Will T1 win MSI 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $182 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $32 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $1 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 28¢ $34 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,538.11 · official $2,538.11 (match) · 3500 history records