Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:37:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F0 0xf024…2002 sports 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$679 (-4%) realized −$679 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate79%33W / 9L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$394per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$63est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$410
7 days+$763
14 days+$763
30 days+$763
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$539
other 22% +$210
crypto 18% −$283
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +14.2% +3.3% 89% 56% -0.9%
≤30d 9 +14.2% +3.3% 89% 56% -0.9%
≤90d 42 -0.3% -9.8% 79% 36% -12.9%
all 42 -0.3% -9.8% 79% 36% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 36% -12.9%
10% -18.4% 19% -21.2%
15% -26.3% 10% -28.8%
20% -33.5% 10% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$220 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$679
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses33 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage71d
Avg bet$394
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,702 +$59 +3%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,630 +$77 +5%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China Jun 22 $1,385 +$245 +18%
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Mi New York Jun 22 $1,411 +$4 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 21 $103 +$25 +24%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $1,252 +$164 +13%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $296 +$155 +52%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $262 +$34 +13%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga May 07 $741 −$334 -45%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 22 $145 −$145 -100%
Abidjan: Michael Geerts vs Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine Apr 22 $212 −$212 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $175 +$37 +21%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Delhi Capitals Apr 21 $635 +$60 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 4AM ET Apr 20 $389 −$389 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi Capitals Apr 20 $725 −$725 -100%
Wuning 2: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Leo Vithoontien Apr 16 $367 +$22 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 16 $363 +$3 +1%
Santa Cruz: Ryan Dickerson vs Juan Carlos Prado Apr 15 $369 −$5 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5PM ET Apr 15 $359 +$10 +3%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Eva Lys vs Elina Svitolina Apr 15 $352 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3PM ET Apr 15 $333 +$19 +6%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Iga Swiatek vs Laura Siegemund Apr 15 $317 +$16 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 15 $314 +$3 +1%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi Apr 15 $200 +$114 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Apr 15 $195 +$5 +3%
Wuning 2: Fajing Sun vs Tai Sach Apr 15 $174 +$21 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 15 $167 +$7 +4%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $130 +$37 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 14 $101 +$32 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 14 $221 −$16 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 14 $105 +$16 +15%
Barcelona Open: Arthur Fils vs Terence Atmane Apr 14 $84 +$22 +26%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Jaqueline Crist Apr 14 $242 −$156 -65%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders Apr 14 $151 +$91 +60%
Busan: Yi Zhou vs Pavel Kotov Apr 14 $138 +$13 +10%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 14 $137 +$1 +1%
Barcelona Open: Jaume Munar vs Rafael Jodar Apr 14 $134 +$3 +2%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 13 $119 +$18 +15%
Busan: Yu-Hsiou Hsu vs Adam Walton Apr 13 $227 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 13 $113 $0 +0%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Apr 13 $72 +$41 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,760 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 97¢ $200 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 96¢ $400 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 97¢ $500 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 96¢ $601 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 99¢ $8 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 99¢ $420 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $701 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $401 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 3h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China SELL Namibia 100¢ $1,630 12h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China BUY Namibia 96¢ $293 15h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China BUY Namibia 82¢ $890 15h
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China BUY Namibia 81¢ $201 15h
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Mi New York SELL Mi New York 100¢ $1,415 23h
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Mi New York BUY Mi New York 100¢ $291 23h
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Mi New York BUY Mi New York 100¢ $560 24h
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Mi New York BUY Mi New York 99¢ $560 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $127 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 31h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 100¢ $1,416 2d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $1,252 2d
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 65¢ $296 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 100¢ $297 5d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $262 5d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga SELL Lucknow Super Giants 96¢ $202 46d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga BUY Lucknow Super Giants 97¢ $205 46d
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga SELL Royal Challengers Bangalore 14¢ $205 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records