trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +7.0% | -3.2% | 50% | 50% | -29.7% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -1.2% | -10.6% | 40% | 40% | -15.7% |
| ≤90d | 21 | +17.6% | +6.4% | 29% | 29% | -9.5% |
| all | 22 | +16.4% | +5.3% | 27% | 27% | -9.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +5.3% | 27% | -9.5% |
| 10% | -4.7% | 27% | -18.1% |
| 15% | -13.9% | 27% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -22.4% | 27% | -33.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 50¢ | 83¢ | $73 | $122 | +$49 (+67%) |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | 50¢ | 17¢ | $73 | $24 | −$49 (-67%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 15 | $2 | +$2 | +114% |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $3 | −$3 | -99% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 08 | $1 | +$3 | +180% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 03 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on May 28? | May 28 | $1 | −$1 | -94% |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | May 06 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Cavaliers vs. Raptors | May 06 | $1 | +$2 | +158% |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | Apr 30 | $1 | +$6 | +442% |
| 76ers vs. Celtics | Apr 23 | $2 | +$11 | +711% |
| Nuggets vs. Timberwolves | Apr 23 | $2 | −$2 | -99% |
| Magic vs. Pistons | Apr 22 | $2 | −$1 | -98% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on March 30? | Apr 10 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| XRP Up or Down on April 1? | Apr 10 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| XRP Up or Down on March 31? | Apr 01 | $1 | +$1 | +64% |
| Ethereum Up or Down on March 25? | Mar 27 | $5,518 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? | Mar 25 | $5,137 | $0 | -0% |
| XRP Up or Down on February 4? | Mar 20 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| XRP Up or Down on February 9? | Mar 20 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on March 9? | Mar 20 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| XRP Up or Down on March 16? | Mar 20 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Ethereum Up or Down on February 2? | Mar 20 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? | Jan 22 | $14 | −$1 | -8% |