Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:39:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf027…3f04 world 125 markets active 0h ago coverage 47d ⚠
BOTnot copyable world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 46d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (72 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL −$12,985 (-7%) realized −$12,851 · open −$134
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate74%73W / 26L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,495per market
Trades / day72.1pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$4,082now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 47d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 96% −$7,035
other 3% +$1,096
politics 1% +$89
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (72 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+43.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -18.5% -26.2% 48% 21% -37.0%
≤30d 79 +38.7% +25.5% 70% 33% -16.6%
≤90d 99 +59.1% +43.9% 74% 37% -12.7%
all 99 +59.1% +43.9% 74% 37% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover72.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +43.9% 37% -12.7%
10% +30.2% 29% -21.0%
15% ← realistic here +17.6% 21% -28.6%
20% +6.1% 17% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +59% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$2,062) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +96% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
18.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$320 vs −$1,118 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$4,082
Realized−$12,851
Unrealized−$134
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses73 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Open positions28
Markets (closed)99 / 125
History coverage47d ⚠
Avg bet$1,495
Trades / day72.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? No 65¢ 70¢ $695 $752 +$57 (+8%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 64¢ 83¢ $496 $644 +$148 (+30%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 68¢ 57¢ $701 $594 −$107 (-15%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? Yes 69¢ 56¢ $618 $497 −$121 (-20%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? No 61¢ 48¢ $507 $400 −$106 (-21%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Zohran Mamdani by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 80¢ $327 $314 −$13 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 26¢ 20¢ $260 $195 −$65 (-25%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Friedrich Merz by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 89¢ $180 $191 +$11 (+6%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 66¢ 68¢ $135 $138 +$3 (+2%)
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by June 30, 2026? No 63¢ 68¢ $111 $120 +$9 (+8%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 48¢ 42¢ $98 $87 −$11 (-11%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 62¢ 42¢ $68 $47 −$21 (-31%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Yes 58¢ 31¢ $59 $32 −$27 (-47%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 96¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+12%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 76¢ 84¢ $8 $8 +$1 (+11%)
Will Valve remove Dust 2 from the Map Pool? No 96¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? No 93¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 82¢ 95¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+16%)
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30? No 87¢ 92¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay No 83¢ 84¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 37¢ 68¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+85%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 19¢ 17¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $47 +$2 +4%
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30? Jun 17 $697 +$183 +26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $3,863 +$903 +23%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? Jun 16 $12 −$1 -5%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 16 $136 +$14 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $430 −$97 -22%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $8,698 −$6,447 -74%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $1,001 −$713 -71%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $2,002 −$1,480 -74%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $4,947 −$2,074 -42%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $11,375 −$2,092 -18%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $7,588 +$875 +12%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 15 $198 +$3 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $7,953 −$5,406 -68%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $75 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1,779 −$1,420 -80%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $2,746 −$56 -2%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 14 $2,620 −$1,679 -64%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $142 +$10 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $319 +$15 +5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $1,927 −$684 -36%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $326 +$310 +95%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 12 $527 −$292 -55%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $6,297 +$939 +15%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $93 −$93 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $3,085 −$1,823 -59%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $258 +$48 +18%
Will Russia enter Shevchenko by June 30? Jun 11 $42 +$4 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $119 +$8 +6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 8, 2026? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $4,509 +$86 +2%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $18,375 −$4,154 -23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $9,832 +$773 +8%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $5 +$84 +1805%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? Jun 08 $1,374 +$118 +9%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? Jun 07 $119 −$89 -75%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $4,954 +$636 +13%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 07 $10,170 +$356 +4%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $60 +$2 +3%
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $37 −$19 -52%
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $18 +$1 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Jun 04 $59 +$1 +2%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 04 $58 −$28 -48%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 02 $1,712 +$5 +0%
Will Malaysia recognize Israel by June 30? Jun 02 $34 +$4 +13%
Kash Patel out by June 30? Jun 02 $2,360 +$562 +24%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 01 $46 +$3 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $14,360 +$4,353 +30%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? May 30 $302 +$155 +51%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 30 $258 +$5 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 83¢ $8 22m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 69¢ $49 1h
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $20 11h
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $9 11h
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $14 11h
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $7 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $396 11h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $1 11h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $1 11h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $3 11h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $8 11h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $3 12h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $3 12h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $3 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $397 24h
Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $44 27h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 29h
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $11 29h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $493 30h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 63¢ $32 35h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 62¢ $17 35h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 61¢ $30 35h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 59¢ $30 35h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 58¢ $29 35h
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 57¢ $9 35h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $60 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $15 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $15 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $6 2d
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 51¢ $23 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,081.97 · official $4,075.78 (match) · 3500 history records