Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:40:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F0 0xf02c…8c61 other 145 markets active 2h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,884 (+2%) realized +$2,882 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate30%43W / 100L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$976per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1,126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$9
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$101
politics 33% −$56
sports 16% +$3,010
culture 4% −$6
world 3% −$15
crypto 1% +$4
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 57 +1.0% -8.6% 7% 2% -8.3%
all 143 +5.2% -4.8% 30% 13% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 13% -7.7%
10% -14.0% 13% -16.5%
15% -22.3% 10% -24.6%
20% -29.9% 9% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,281) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +17% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$5 · ×16.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.92 per $1 lost it wins $6.92
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$1,126
Realized+$2,882
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses43 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)143 / 145
History coverage155d
Avg bet$976
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $848 $850 +$2 (+0%)
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $276 $276 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 27 $253 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 27 $214 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 26 $201 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $255 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $1,204 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $201 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $973 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $2,296 −$4 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $4,363 −$5 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,192 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,006 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,079 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $2,109 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $812 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $3,540 −$4 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $1,258 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $2,303 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1,297 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $307 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $20 in May? Jun 02 $477 $0 +0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $641 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 27 $626 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $722 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $911 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $415 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $565 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 23 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $2,602 −$3 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $3,609 −$5 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $1,236 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,242 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $1,154 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 01 $1,246 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $3,528 −$4 -0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 Apr 29 $703 +$1 +0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $1,655 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $1,256 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 20 $2,670 −$3 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,147 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $1,283 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,264 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $1,327 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $1,273 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $1,151 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $1,151 −$1 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $982 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $1,050 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $276 1h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $252 17h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $253 19h
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $214 20h
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $214 23h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $201 42h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $201 45h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $255 6d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $255 6d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $241 7d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $242 7d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $201 7d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $201 7d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $220 9d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $220 9d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $287 10d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $288 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $848 12d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $972 13d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $973 13d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,122 13d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,123 13d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,093 14d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,094 15d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $960 15d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $962 15d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,190 15d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,192 16d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,171 16d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,173 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,125.75 · official $1,125.75 (match) · 401 history records