Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T14:55:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F0 0xf02f…b00e crypto 225 markets active 2h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6,913 (+9%) realized +$6,567 · open +$346
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate55%123W / 99L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$330per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1,546now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$64
7 days+$259
14 days−$202
30 days+$466
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$308
sports 18% +$657
politics 10% +$7,920
tech 9% +$189
other 9% −$1,201
world 1% −$159
finance 0% −$148
culture 0% −$200
economics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +20.6% +9.1% 100% 75% +7.0%
≤30d 35 +0.1% -9.5% 71% 66% -6.1%
≤90d 47 -0.3% -9.8% 68% 62% -5.4%
all 222 -13.2% -21.5% 55% 43% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 43% -1.6%
10% -29.0% 23% -11.0%
15% -35.9% 13% -19.6%
20% -42.2% 6% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$143 vs −$113 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$1,546
Realized+$6,567
Unrealized+$346
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses123 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions3
Markets (closed)222 / 225
History coverage531d
Avg bet$330
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 222 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 65¢ 99¢ $500 $764 +$264 (+53%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? No 85¢ 100¢ $400 $470 +$70 (+18%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 30? No 90¢ 94¢ $300 $312 +$12 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 28? Jun 28 $301 +$18 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $403 +$46 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $205 +$91 +45%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $506 +$103 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $487 +$59 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? Jun 20 $207 −$200 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $605 +$79 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 18 $966 −$565 -58%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $587 +$104 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $905 +$62 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $505 +$74 +15%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $707 +$200 +28%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $406 +$113 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $606 +$100 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $607 +$112 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $405 −$405 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 09 $101 −$100 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $304 +$71 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $305 +$95 +31%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $306 +$124 +40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $103 +$74 +72%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $307 −$210 -68%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $303 +$145 +48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $305 +$95 +31%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 06 $104 −$29 -28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $153 +$54 +36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $206 +$141 +68%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 05 $201 −$3 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $304 +$70 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $304 +$67 +22%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? Jun 02 $103 +$85 +83%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $188 −$182 -97%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $202 +$88 +44%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $101 −$100 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 30? May 30 $32 −$22 -70%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $301 +$32 +11%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $201 +$65 +32%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 19 $300 +$41 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 14? May 15 $102 +$33 +33%
LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 14 $201 +$19 +10%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 13 $202 +$110 +55%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 10 $20 −$11 -52%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 10 $300 −$35 -12%
Will the People Power Party win less than or equal to 1 seat in South May 10 $200 −$5 -2%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 01 $102 −$64 -63%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 01 $100 +$31 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Gen.G win First Stand 2026? Mar 21 $303 −$235 -78%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 18 $57 −$57 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 30? BUY No 90¢ $302 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 29? BUY No 85¢ $404 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 28? BUY No 94¢ $301 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? BUY No 89¢ $403 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY No 68¢ $205 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 24? BUY No 82¢ $506 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY No 65¢ $512 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY No 51¢ $207 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $684 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 88¢ $487 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 38¢ $401 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 88¢ $605 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 88¢ $966 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 100¢ $966 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 84¢ $587 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 99¢ $579 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 93¢ $905 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $908 15d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 11¢ $10 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 86¢ $505 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 77¢ $707 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 77¢ $406 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 85¢ $606 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 83¢ $607 19d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $101 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 82¢ $405 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 70¢ $306 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? BUY No 80¢ $304 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? SELL No 22¢ $97 21d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 67¢ $303 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,546.02 · official $1,546.40 (match) · 555 history records