Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:46:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F0 0xf030…c5e6 other 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 622d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$17 (+0%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate29%15W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 76% −$15
other 17% +$22
sports 3% +$9
crypto 2% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +20.9% +9.4% 20% 20% +6.2%
≤30d 19 +5.4% -4.6% 16% 5% -7.2%
≤90d 42 +7.5% -2.7% 26% 14% -7.4%
all 52 +6.1% -4.0% 29% 12% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 12% -9.3%
10% -13.2% 12% -18.0%
15% -21.6% 12% -25.9%
20% -29.3% 12% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

622d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses15 / 37
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)52 / 54
History coverage622d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $9 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$10 +105%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $15 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $14 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $13 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $74 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $12 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $13 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of May 31 $13 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $13 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $13 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $78 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 18 $64 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 12 $69 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $70 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $67 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 06 $67 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $65 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $67 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 21 $67 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $136 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $67 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $70 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $70 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $8 +$5 +72%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $9 +$7 +83%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $7 +$12 +172%
Bucks vs. Nets Apr 08 $7 +$8 +124%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 08 $13 +$7 +59%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Apr 06 $11 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 06 $11 $0 +1%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 06 $23 +$1 +3%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? Mar 05 $43 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 09 $43 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 11 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Oct 08 $14 $0 +3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 29 $94 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $275 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $1,339 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $26 1h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $9 20h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $9 22h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $10 2d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $15 2d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 2d
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $40 2d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 3d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 3d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $14 3d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $14 3d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $13 8d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 9d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 9d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 9d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $9 10d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $9 10d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $12 15d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $12 15d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $13 16d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $13 16d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 17d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $13 19d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $13 19d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $13 20d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 20d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $13 21d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 21d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $19 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.09 · official $66.09 (match) · 336 history records