Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:53:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F0
0xf031…2883
crypto · 41 markets active 0h ago
4.5score
+$81 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$49 · open +$5
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$1,013
Realized+$49
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses19 / 0
Open positions22
Markets (closed)19 / 41
History coverage17d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 22 History 19 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$14
14 days+$38
30 days+$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 89¢ 96¢ $330 $356 +$27 (+8%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 80¢ 74¢ $160 $148 −$12 (-7%)
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? No 94¢ 96¢ $76 $77 +$2 (+2%)
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 93¢ 97¢ $65 $68 +$3 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $64 $64 +$0 (+1%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 42¢ 34¢ $47 $38 −$9 (-19%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 51¢ 50¢ $31 $30 −$1 (-3%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $28 $29 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 95¢ 94¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $26 $27 +$2 (+6%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No 51¢ 72¢ $15 $22 +$6 (+42%)
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026? No 93¢ 87¢ $19 $17 −$1 (-7%)
Ebola case in the US by June 30? No 78¢ 84¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+8%)
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Anthropic 77¢ 76¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Silver (SI) settle at <$50 in June? No 97¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will June be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? No 94¢ 97¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 56¢ 24¢ $22 $10 −$13 (-57%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 90¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $59 +$1 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $98 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $20 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $8 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $86 +$4 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $9 +$1 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $7 +$3 +36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $29 +$4 +15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $9 +$1 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May? Jun 01 $185 +$7 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $219 +$11 +5%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30? May 29 $88 +$11 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
tech 31% +$30
crypto 27% +$19
world 24% −$12
other 18% +$17
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 38¢ $4 25m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 39¢ $4 25m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $5 25m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $5 27m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $8 28m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $5 29m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $8 29m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $8 31m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $5 45m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $5 45m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $5 45m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $8 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $8 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $8 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $8 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $8 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 39¢ $4 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 39¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $8 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $8 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 39¢ $3 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $8 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $8 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $8 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $8 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $8 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $8 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $8 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $8 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +8.5% -1.9% 100% 23% -5.9%
≤30d 19 +8.6% -1.7% 100% 32% -4.5%
≤90d 19 +8.6% -1.7% 100% 32% -4.5%
all 19 +8.6% -1.7% 100% 32% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.7% 32% -4.5%
10% -11.1% 11% -13.6%
15% -19.7% 5% -22.0%
20% -27.6% 0% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,012.96 · official $1,012.97 (match) · 171 history records