Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:34:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf035…052a crypto 607 markets active 2h ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,507 (-7%) realized −$1,439 · open −$68
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate48%289W / 310L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$131est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$165now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$43
7 days−$43
14 days+$157
30 days+$134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$1,546
sports 23% −$55
other 7% +$103
world 7% −$39
politics 4% −$36
tech 3% −$5
finance 2% −$5
weather 1% −$72
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -10.6% -19.1% 17% 8% -14.3%
≤30d 72 +1.9% -7.8% 22% 8% -7.9%
≤90d 265 -63.6% -67.1% 8% 4% -34.9%
all 599 -2.2% -11.5% 48% 40% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 40% -16.6%
10% -20.0% 35% -24.6%
15% -27.7% 33% -31.9%
20% -34.8% 31% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +51% → late -55% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$15 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$165
Realized−$1,439
Unrealized−$68
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses289 / 310
Est. fees paid−$131
Open positions5
Markets (closed)599 / 607
History coverage244d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 599 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Yes 53¢ 38¢ $106 $77 −$29 (-27%)
Will Delta Q2 passenger revenue per available seat mile be between 20 and 21 cents? No 73¢ 68¢ $73 $68 −$5 (-7%)
Will Gen.G win the EWC League of Legends Tournament Yes 28¢ 22¢ $19 $15 −$4 (-23%)
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450? No 40¢ 16¢ $9 $4 −$6 (-59%)
Will Al Lawson win the Tallahassee mayoral election? Yes 26¢ 2¢ $26 $2 −$24 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on July 1? Jun 29 $57 −$1 -2%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $203 $0 -0%
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 20 Jun 29 $98 −$1 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? Jun 29 $154 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? Jun 29 $120 $0 -0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 28 $43 −$43 -100%
GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026? Jun 26 $55 $0 +0%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 25 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $32 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +7%
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 22 $53 −$21 -40%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $220 $0 +0%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Jun 22 $94 −$2 -2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$221 +216%
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election? Jun 16 $53 −$5 -9%
Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026? Jun 15 $70 +$2 +3%
Will New York Yankees win the 2026 AL East title? Jun 12 $67 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $195 $0 +0%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $300 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 12 $116 $0 -0%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $68 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $38 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $112 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $71 −$2 -3%
Ostium FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 12 $51 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +20%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 10 $355 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 10 $65 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 10 $62 $0 +0%
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.1B? Jun 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 10 $79 $0 +0%
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 09 $41 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 09 $54 $0 +0%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $230 $0 +0%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $220 $0 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $48 −$1 -2%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $20 +$8 +39%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Anyone's Legend (+2.5) Jun 08 $350 $0 +0%
Will Manuel Flavio Minervini win the 2026 Molfetta mayoral election? Jun 08 $61 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $134 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $202 −$2 -1%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 07 $70 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $310 $0 -0%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 07 $69 $0 +0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 06 $29 $0 +0%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 06 $31 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on July 1? SELL No 66¢ $56 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on July 1? BUY No 66¢ $57 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on July 1? BUY No 42¢ $0 2h
Will Delta Q2 passenger revenue per available seat mile be between 20 BUY No 73¢ $73 2h
Will Gen.G win the EWC League of Legends Tournament BUY Yes 28¢ $12 4h
Will Gen.G win the EWC League of Legends Tournament BUY Yes 28¢ $8 4h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 59¢ $0 5h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 59¢ $52 5h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 59¢ $1 5h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 59¢ $1 5h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 59¢ $1 5h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 59¢ $1 5h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 60¢ $146 5h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $203 5h
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 20 SELL Yes 35¢ $35 6h
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 20 SELL No 62¢ $43 6h
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 20 BUY Yes 36¢ $36 6h
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 20 SELL No 62¢ $1 6h
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 20 SELL No 62¢ $10 6h
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 20 SELL No 62¢ $8 6h
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 20 BUY No 62¢ $62 6h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $148 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $118 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? SELL No 60¢ $2 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $120 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $2 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $4 7h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $154 7h
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 14 SELL No 41¢ $31 8h
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 14 BUY No 40¢ $40 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.44 · official $165.44 (match) · 2029 history records