Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:19:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F0
0xf038…e718
crypto · 1515 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$660 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$660 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$660
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses569 / 946
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1515 / 1515
History coverage86d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day37.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 0 History 1515 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$55
14 days−$126
30 days−$239
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on May 6? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C or higher on May 7? No 25¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on May 13? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on May 5? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C or higher on May 11? No 86¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 10? No 82¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -50%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -53%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +28%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -82%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -26%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -64%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +168%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -20%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -53%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -50%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +36%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -73%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -34%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -43%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +46%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -53%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +56%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -67%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -7%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -35%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -69%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -7%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -37%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -27%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -34%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -45%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -56%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$2 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 49% −$198
weather 34% −$267
sports 9% −$169
other 5% −$46
world 2% +$20
politics 1% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $1 36m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 36m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $0 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $2 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $1 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $3 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $0 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $2 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 352 -8.4% -17.1% 39% 30% -13.8%
≤30d 1142 -10.1% -18.7% 37% 32% -16.3%
≤90d 1515 -10.8% -19.3% 38% 30% -17.2%
all 1515 -10.8% -19.3% 38% 30% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover37.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.3% 30% -17.2%
10% ← realistic here -27.0% 23% -25.1%
15% -34.1% 15% -32.3%
20% -40.5% 8% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records