Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:58:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf03a…817c world 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 457d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$11 (-3%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate26%7W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$11
other 27% $0
crypto 11% $0
finance 9% $0
politics 7% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 7 -16.9% -24.8% 0% 0% -11.8%
≤90d 10 -21.3% -28.8% 10% 10% -12.3%
all 27 -8.3% -17.0% 26% 4% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 4% -11.0%
10% -25.0% 0% -19.5%
15% -32.2% 0% -27.3%
20% -38.9% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

457d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses7 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage457d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $38 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $35 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $7 −$3 -41%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $38 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $37 −$3 -8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $3 $0 -8%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 24 $6 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $45 −$3 -7%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $7 −$1 -8%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 -6%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will Daniil Medvedev win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 22 $9 $0 -0%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? Jun 22 $11 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? May 22 $10 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 20 $11 $0 -2%
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 18 $3 $0 -2%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 18 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 18 $11 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? May 14 $11 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by next Tuesday? May 11 $11 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? May 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? May 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? Apr 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 28 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $38 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $38 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $8 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $26 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $15 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $20 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $37 28d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $38 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 38¢ $34 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $15 29d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $22 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 3¢ $2 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 3¢ $0 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 4¢ $3 29d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 29d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 30d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $41 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $33 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $12 30d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 88¢ $8 30d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 88¢ $0 30d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 88¢ $8 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.53 · official $0.00 · 73 history records