Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:32:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf03b…3ba1 sports 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,567 (-15%) realized −$2,567 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%10W / 19L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$577per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$181est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,154
7 days−$2,097
14 days−$2,244
30 days−$2,674
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$2,295
other 42% −$379
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-32.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -25.8% -32.9% 37% 37% -23.4%
≤30d 29 -25.7% -32.7% 34% 34% -24.1%
≤90d 29 -25.7% -32.7% 34% 34% -24.1%
all 29 -25.7% -32.7% 34% 34% -24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.7% 34% -24.1%
10% -39.2% 34% -31.3%
15% -45.1% 31% -38.0%
20% -50.4% 28% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$720) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -36% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$561 vs −$436 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,567
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses10 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$181
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage21d
Avg bet$577
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $437 +$464 +106%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $670 −$534 -80%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $530 +$455 +86%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $542 +$381 +70%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa Jun 19 $198 −$194 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $1,241 −$537 -43%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $784 −$771 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $727 −$714 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,139 −$1,123 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $1,303 +$419 +32%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $1,525 −$1,500 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,613 −$64 -4%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,460 +$2,122 +145%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $251 −$248 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $448 +$186 +42%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $290 +$158 +54%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $286 −$281 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $74 −$72 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $247 −$244 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $151 −$147 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Diana Shnaider Jun 03 $90 −$88 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $429 −$420 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Jun 01 $198 −$193 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider Jun 01 $295 +$398 +135%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 01 $727 −$720 -99%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks May 31 $355 +$668 +188%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek May 31 $294 −$291 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $290 +$358 +124%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $144 −$141 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 100¢ $900 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 48¢ $437 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 10¢ $137 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $670 3h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 100¢ $986 3h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $530 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $542 9h
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Paula Badosa BUY Paula Badosa 34¢ $198 20h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys SELL Madison Keys 20¢ $198 20h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 49¢ $507 21h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys SELL Jessica Pegula 42¢ $507 21h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys BUY Jessica Pegula 59¢ $734 22h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $784 30h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 38¢ $727 31h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,139 39h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova SELL Madison Keys 100¢ $1,722 39h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova BUY Madison Keys 75¢ $1,303 40h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 45¢ $1,525 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 46¢ $1,548 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $1,613 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,582 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $1,460 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $251 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $448 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $448 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $290 3d
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya BUY Anna Kalinskaya 34¢ $286 3d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 40¢ $74 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $247 6d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $151 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 44 history records