Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:00:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf03c…8bf1 crypto 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 568d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate60%32W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 89% −$4
sports 5% −$2
other 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 53 -0.1% -9.6% 60% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

568d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses32 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 54
History coverage568d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? May 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $555 end of January? Feb 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? Dec 10 $23 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $350 in October? Nov 02 $7 $0 +1%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 01 $2,233 −$2 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 01 $2,212 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? Sep 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Pump.fun reach $0.010 before August? Aug 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.8 in June? Jul 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jun 08 $2 $0 +0%
Solana all time high in May? Jun 08 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $83000 and $85000 on Apr 25? May 06 $1 $0 +0%
Solana above $120 on April 18? Apr 21 $2 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in March? Apr 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $3 $0 +0%
Dogecoin above $0.20 on March 14? Mar 16 $1 $0 +0%
Dogecoin above $0.26 on February 28? Mar 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $99000 and $101000 on Feb 28? Mar 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 by February 28 2025? Mar 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $2b and $2.5b on Feb 21 Feb 23 $1 $0 +0%
Dogecoin above $0.34 on February 7? Feb 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $140 by January 31, 2025? Feb 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by January 31? Feb 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 04 $2 $0 +0%
Trump in jail before inauguration? Jan 20 $3 $0 +1%
Ripple above $2.40 on January 17? Jan 18 $2 $0 +0%
Solana above $190 on January 17? Jan 18 $2 $0 +2%
Will LA wildfires burn 60-70k acres by Sunday? Jan 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked' gross more than $500 million domestically by January 9? Jan 11 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on January 10? Jan 11 $1 $0 +4%
Cybertruck explosion perp arrested by Sunday? Jan 07 $1 $0 +0%
Seahawks vs. Cardinals Dec 07 $16 $0 -2%
Chargers vs. Chiefs Dec 07 $22 $0 -2%
Will Brighton win on 2024-12-08? Dec 07 $33 $0 -0%
Panthers vs. Kraken Dec 07 $48 $0 -0%
Pistons vs. Knicks Dec 07 $8 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-07? Dec 06 $19 $0 -0%
Browns vs. Steelers Dec 06 $17 $0 -0%
Grizzlies vs. Celtics Dec 06 $10 −$1 -13%
Jaguars vs. Titans Dec 06 $33 $0 -0%
Bucks vs. Celtics Dec 06 $13 $0 -0%
Mavericks vs. Raptors Dec 06 $11 $0 -2%
Will Newcastle win on 2024-12-07? Dec 06 $18 $0 -0%
Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-07? Dec 05 $11 $0 -0%
Kings vs. Spurs Dec 05 $4 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win on 2024-12-05? Dec 05 $3 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-04? Dec 04 $33 $0 -0%
Jets vs. Dolphins Dec 04 $21 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-04? Dec 04 $9 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $210 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $34 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? BUY No 100¢ $28 60d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $555 end of January? BUY No 100¢ $33 144d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $23 208d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $2,231 234d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2,233 234d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $2,210 234d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2,212 234d
Will Solana reach $350 in October? BUY No 99¢ $7 250d
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? BUY No 100¢ $2 298d
Will Pump.fun reach $0.010 before August? BUY No 100¢ $2 330d
Will XRP reach $2.8 in June? BUY No 99¢ $1 361d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 393d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? BUY No 100¢ $1 394d
Solana all time high in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 394d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $83000 and $85000 on Apr 25? BUY No 100¢ $1 424d
Solana above $120 on April 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 431d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $3 456d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in March? BUY No 100¢ $1 457d
Dogecoin above $0.20 on March 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 466d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $99000 and $101000 on Feb 28? BUY No 100¢ $1 481d
Dogecoin above $0.26 on February 28? BUY No 100¢ $1 481d
Will XRP reach $3.80 by February 28 2025? BUY No 100¢ $2 481d
Will XRP reach $3.80 by February 28 2025? BUY No 100¢ $2 481d
Will the market cap of $LIBRA (FDV) be between $2b and $2.5b on Feb 21 BUY No 100¢ $1 488d
Dogecoin above $0.34 on February 7? BUY No 99¢ $2 501d
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by January 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $2 509d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by January 31? BUY No 100¢ $2 510d
Will Solana dip to $140 by January 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $1 510d
Trump in jail before inauguration? BUY No 99¢ $2 519d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.54 · official $33.54 (match) · 164 history records