Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:25:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F0
0xf040…3a86
politics · 111 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$113 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$52 · open −$19
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$22
Realized−$52
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses16 / 66
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions33
Markets (closed)82 / 111
History coverage19d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day181.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 33 History 82 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$26
14 days−$37
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $17 $8 −$8 (-50%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Will Robert Jenrick be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Boris Johnson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Moises Caicedo win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+20%)
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+21%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $6 $0 -2%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $16 −$3 -16%
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $7 −$1 -12%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 11 $2 $0 -24%
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $3 +$3 +118%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $44 −$3 -6%
Will Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 -2%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $62 −$3 -6%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $13 $0 -3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? Jun 11 $2 $0 -3%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 -2%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 11 $49 −$6 -13%
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 11 $24 −$8 -33%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $19 +$7 +38%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 11 $108 −$2 -2%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $36 −$1 -3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? Jun 11 $9 $0 -4%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $3 $0 -13%
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom Jun 11 $8 −$1 -10%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $0 $0 -4%
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 11 $7 −$1 -19%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $13 +$9 +71%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 -4%
Will Sporting Kansas City win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $10 −$5 -51%
Will Austin FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $1 +$3 +514%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $3 $0 -4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $47 by end of June? Jun 11 $1 $0 -7%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $110 −$4 -4%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $4 −$1 -16%
Will Atlanta United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $8 −$1 -18%
Will Colorado Rapids win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $3 $0 -14%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? Jun 11 $13 −$2 -15%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 11 $4 +$1 +31%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $5 −$2 -38%
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $4 +$3 +80%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $3 $0 -8%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $6 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? Jun 09 $12 −$3 -21%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $2 $0 -4%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 08 $10 −$2 -21%
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 Jun 08 $8 −$1 -7%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $9 $0 -2%
Will Portland Timbers win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $0 $0 +1%
Will FC Dallas win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $52 −$2 -3%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $6 −$1 -10%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $2 $0 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 27% −$36
economics 21% −$9
other 16% −$12
tech 14% −$7
finance 8% −$5
culture 5% +$5
sports 5% −$2
world 4% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 15m
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 16m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 38m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 38m
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 45m
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 47m
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 51m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 2h
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 3h
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL Yes 0¢ $2 4h
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 4h
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY Yes 0¢ $2 5h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 5h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 6h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 6h
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +9.6% -0.9% 15% 13% -12.9%
≤30d 82 +3.8% -6.1% 20% 11% -14.1%
≤90d 82 +3.8% -6.1% 20% 11% -14.1%
all 82 +3.8% -6.1% 20% 11% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover181.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.1% 11% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -15.1% 10% -22.3%
15% -23.3% 7% -29.8%
20% -30.8% 6% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.37 · official $22.32 (match) · 3500 history records