Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:31:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

F0 0xf043…561b other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 70d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$162 (+4%) realized +$288 · open −$126

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip

Net edge-23%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate60%3W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$477per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Kalshi-fit44%portable

Net worth$1,653now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 70d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)-23.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-28.7%	-35.5%	50%	50%	-19.3%
≤30d	4	-28.7%	-35.5%	50%	50%	-19.3%
≤90d	5	-15.4%	-23.4%	60%	60%	-1.5%
all	5	-15.4%	-23.4%	60%	60%	-1.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-23.4%	60%	-1.5%
10%	-30.8%	60%	-10.9%
15%	-37.5%	40%	-19.5%
20%	-43.6%	20%	-27.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 51% · top 2 82% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +9% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -15% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$249 vs −$263 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.42 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage

Net worth$1,653

Realized+$288

Unrealized−$126

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses3 / 2

Open positions4

Markets (closed)5 / 9

History coverage70d

Avg bet$477

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	27¢	23¢	$999	$851	−$148 (-15%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	65¢	66¢	$400	$400	+$0 (+0%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	39¢	44¢	$180	$203	+$23 (+13%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	63¢	62¢	$200	$198	−$2 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 17	$263	−$263	-100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 17	$264	−$264	-100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$682	+$234	+34%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$263	+$134	+51%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Apr 13	$1,000	+$378	+38%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	63¢	$210	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	66¢	$210	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$210	5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	71¢	$105	5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	71¢	$105	5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	61¢	$263	5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	71¢	$210	6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	71¢	$262	6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	63¢	$263	7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	50¢	$264	15d
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	BUY Yes	39¢	$192	20d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY Yes	27¢	$999	61d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	SELL Yes	99¢	$1,378	67d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	BUY Yes	72¢	$1,000	69d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,652.85 · official $1,652.85 (match) · 80 history records