Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:56:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf044…c09a sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$147 (-12%) realized −$128 · open −$19
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$246now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$147
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-43.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -37.4% -43.3% 22% 22% -22.2%
≤30d 9 -37.4% -43.3% 22% 22% -22.2%
≤90d 9 -37.4% -43.3% 22% 22% -22.2%
all 9 -37.4% -43.3% 22% 22% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.3% 22% -22.2%
10% -48.7% 22% -29.6%
15% -53.7% 11% -36.4%
20% -58.2% 0% -42.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$30 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$246
Realized−$128
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage4d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Series Playoffs OlyBet SB 49¢ 50¢ $165 $165 +$1 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OlyBet SB - Map 1 Winner OlyBet SB 61¢ 50¢ $100 $81 −$19 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P Jun 26 $127 +$41 +32%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Play Jun 26 $200 −$49 -24%
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - LG Ul Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham Jun 25 $51 −$1 -2%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - Super Dracu Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER Jun 24 $101 +$42 +42%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $100 −$5 -5%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs Millennium Esports (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 23 $203 −$7 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OlyBet SB - Map 1 Winner BUY OlyBet SB 61¢ $101 2h
Counter-Strike: Just Players vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenge BUY OlyBet SB 49¢ $167 2h
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P SELL ex-Sashi Academy 49¢ $125 19h
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY ex-Sashi Academy 41¢ $127 19h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Play BUY Johnny Speeds 30¢ $20 19h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Play SELL Johnny Speeds 54¢ $0 19h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Play SELL Johnny Speeds 54¢ $147 19h
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Play BUY Johnny Speeds 62¢ $180 19h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - LG Ul BUY The Huns Esports 38¢ $51 29h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham BUY Vasco Esports 50¢ $51 41h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - Super Dracu BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 44¢ $51 42h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY Walczaki 51¢ $51 42h
Counter-Strike: Atrix Esports vs shimmer (BO3) - Rainhas do Clutch FER BUY shimmer 70¢ $101 3d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 52¢ $100 4d
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs Millennium Esports (BO3) - United21 Group BUY Millennium Esports 51¢ $203 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $246.19 · official $246.19 (match) · 20 history records