Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:22:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
F0 0xf047…bf61 sports 77 markets active 8h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$46 (+6%) realized +$39 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate54%34W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day15.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$41
14 days+$32
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$41
other 29% +$8
crypto 4% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +19.0% +7.6% 56% 47% +5.6%
≤30d 63 +9.2% -1.2% 54% 48% -0.1%
≤90d 63 +9.2% -1.2% 54% 48% -0.1%
all 63 +9.2% -1.2% 54% 48% -0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.2% 48% -0.1%
10% -10.7% 44% -9.7%
15% -19.3% 40% -18.4%
20% -27.2% 33% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized+$39
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses34 / 29
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions12
Markets (closed)63 / 77
History coverage12d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day15.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+15%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Portugal leading at halftime? Yes 58¢ 90¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+54%)
Colombia leading at halftime? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $5 +$5 +93%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$5 +95%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 +$7 +636%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$3 +26%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +60%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$3 +62%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$3 +50%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$5 +97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $6 +$5 +79%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $6 +$6 +93%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $15 −$2 -11%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +110%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 +$12 +55%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 14 $3 $0 -15%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $45 +$3 +6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $14 +$14 +95%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$6 +109%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $29 −$9 -32%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 $0 -4%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$24 -96%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -71%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +107%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7 +$9 +139%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $15 −$4 -27%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $37 +$5 +14%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5) Jun 11 $3 −$1 -26%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $32 −$2 -6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $14 +$1 +10%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $18 +$2 +10%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $35 +$9 +27%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $3 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $13 −$11 -82%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $10 +$10 +103%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $8 −$8 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $4 +$3 +76%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5 +$4 +83%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $3 +$1 +47%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $5 +$3 +65%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $4 +$2 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 8h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 8h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 8h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 8h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 8h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 8h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 8h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 8h
Austria leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 11h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 14h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 82¢ $3 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 14h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 15h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 15h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 15h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 16h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 16h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 16h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $8 17h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $5 33h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 33h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 51¢ $5 33h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 68¢ $5 33h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 33h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 33h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $5 34h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $6 47h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $14 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $6 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.13 · official $78.13 (match) · 191 history records