Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:56:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F0 0xf04f…4da0 sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$40 (-32%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -79% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -82% what you keep after slip
Net edge-82%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%1W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-80.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -78.7% -80.8% 17% 17% -76.5%
≤30d 6 -78.7% -80.8% 17% 17% -76.5%
≤90d 6 -78.7% -80.8% 17% 17% -76.5%
all 6 -78.7% -80.8% 17% 17% -76.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -80.8% 17% -76.5%
10% -82.6% 0% -78.8%
15% -84.3% 0% -80.8%
20% -85.8% 0% -82.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -74% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -79% · $-wt -74% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$20 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $25 +$5 +19%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $30 −$28 -91%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $30 −$30 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $30 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 SELL Over 5¢ $3 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 84¢ $25 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $30 3h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $30 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 27¢ $10 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 35¢ $20 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 42¢ $10 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records